Heming v Lokomotiv Oslo prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Heming 4–2 Lokomotiv Oslo HEMING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heming win~~73%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.107

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.195

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heming win at 73%.
1′Much as we predicted: Heming was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–14–13
1′KICK-OFF Heming v Lokomotiv Oslo
22′Heming score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
22′We published Heming at 73%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Heming 1–0 Lokomotiv Oslo
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Heming win: 73% at kick-off, 85% now
31′Heming find the net on 31′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
31′We published Heming at 73%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Heming 2–0 Lokomotiv Oslo
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Heming win: 73% at kick-off, 95% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 4.6 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Heming 2–0 Lokomotiv Oslo
46′SECOND HALF Heming 2–0 Lokomotiv Oslo
57′A goal for Heming on 56′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Heming 3–0 Lokomotiv Oslo
59′We published Heming at 73%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′Lokomotiv Oslo score on 68′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Heming 3–1 Lokomotiv Oslo
74′Heming find the net on 74′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
74′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.6 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Heming 4–1 Lokomotiv Oslo
80′A goal for Lokomotiv Oslo on 80′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
80′6 goals already, more than the 4.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Heming 4–2 Lokomotiv Oslo
86′N. Abrahamsen scores for Lokomotiv Oslo on 79′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Heming 4–2 Lokomotiv Oslo
FTHeming 4–2 Lokomotiv Oslo · Heming win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heming are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heming 73%, draw 13%, Lokomotiv Oslo 13%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Heming v Lokomotiv OsloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Heming win73%

Draw13%

Lokomotiv Oslo win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heming

Lokomotiv Oslo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Heming	24	+24	47
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	−22	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heming winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

73% The market64%

Us73%

~~Market~~64%

We make Heming a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heming v Lokomotiv Oslo~~3.21 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 47 v 29~~2 v 9

~~The market · Heming win~~64% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heming win The market, margin stripped

Published at 74%, 73% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heming win	73%	64%	+9
Draw	13%	17%	−4
Lokomotiv Oslo win	13%	19%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Both teams to score	70%	72%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	62%	+4
Heming or draw	87%	81%	+6
Heming clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lokomotiv Oslo clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.5%

0123450 1 3.7 4.5 3.1 2 5.5 7.2 4.8 2.2 3 5.8 7.5 5.0 2.3 4 4.6 5.9 4.0 5 3.0 3.9 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Heming down, Lokomotiv Oslo across0–5 goals a side shown (88.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.5% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heming at home: 3.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Oslo away: 1.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.21 goals for Heming, 1.34 for Lokomotiv Oslo. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LOK 0–2 HEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept

HEMING

WWWDDW5–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 5–5 · 2–2 · 2–0

LOKOMOTIV OSLO

WLWLWW5–2 · 0–5 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	24	+49	64
2	Heming	24	+24	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	+27	44
4	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
5	IF Ready	24	+14	39
6	Bærum	24	+20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	24	+8	38
8	Frigg	24	−5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	−22	29
10	KFUM II	24	−13	28
11	SF Grei	24	−29	25
12	Ullern	24	−19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	−18	20
14	Konnerud	24	−27	17