Gamle Oslo v Bærum prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Gamle Oslo 2–2 Bærum GAMLE OSLO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gamle Oslo win~~51%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.028

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.995

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gamle Oslo win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gamle Oslo 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–18–31
1′KICK-OFF Gamle Oslo v Bærum
8′A goal for Bærum on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 31–19–50
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Gamle Oslo 0–1 Bærum
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Bærum win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Gamle Oslo win 50%)
9′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–19–50
14′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–20–51
21′Gamle Oslo score on 21′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 48–21–31
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Gamle Oslo 1–1 Bærum
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Gamle Oslo win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Bærum win 52%)
32′The goal count is tracking the 4.6 we expected. 1–1 · 46–24–30
45′HALF-TIME Gamle Oslo 1–1 Bærum
46′SECOND HALF Gamle Oslo 1–1 Bærum
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
53′Bærum find the net on 53′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–24–60
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Gamle Oslo 1–2 Bærum
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 16% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Bærum win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Gamle Oslo win 41%)
54′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–24–60
58′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–24–62
62′A goal for Gamle Oslo on 62′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 36–37–26
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Gamle Oslo 2–2 Bærum
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 36% now
63′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 2–2 · 36–38–26
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bærum win 64%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 30% now
78′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–59–17
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gamle Oslo win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
89′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
93′We said Gamle Oslo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Gamle Oslo 2–2 Bærum
FTGamle Oslo 2–2 Bærum · Gamle Oslo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gamle Oslo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gamle Oslo 51%, draw 18%, Bærum 31%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 79%.

The AI’s read on Gamle Oslo v BærumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gamle Oslo win51%

Draw18%

Bærum win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gamle Oslo

Bærum

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Gamle Oslo	24	+27	44
6	Bærum	24	+20	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gamle oslo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market55%

Us51%

~~Market~~55%

We make Gamle Oslo a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gamle Oslo v Bærum~~2.60 – 2.03

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 44 v 38~~3 v 6

~~The market · Gamle Oslo win~~55% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gamle Oslo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gamle Oslo win	51%	55%	−4
Draw	18%	20%	−2
Bærum win	31%	25%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Both teams to score	79%	77%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	94%	92%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Gamle Oslo or draw	69%	75%	−6
Gamle Oslo clean sheet	14%	–	–
Bærum clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.6%

0123450 2.3 2.1 1 2.9 5.1 5.2 3.5 2 3.4 6.6 6.6 4.4 2.3 3 2.9 5.7 5.6 3.8 4 3.7 3.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gamle Oslo down, Bærum across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.5% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gamle Oslo at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bærum away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Gamle Oslo, 2.03 for Bærum. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BAE 5–1 GAM · GAM 4–2 BAE · BAE 1–2 GAM · BAE 1–2 GAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept

GAMLE OSLO

LLLDWL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

BÆRUM

LLLLLW2–5 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	25	+52	67
2	Heming	25	+26	50
3	Gamle Oslo	24	+27	44
4	IF Ready	25	+15	42
5	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
6	Bærum	24	+20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	25	+5	38
8	Frigg	24	−5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	25	−24	29
10	KFUM II	24	−13	28
11	Ullern	25	−13	26
12	SF Grei	24	−29	25
13	Nordstrand	25	−24	20
14	Konnerud	25	−28	17