Frigg v SF Grei prediction · 3. Division - Girone 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Frigg 0–4 SF Grei FRIGG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frigg win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frigg win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: Frigg was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–13–15
1′KICK-OFF Frigg v SF Grei
14′SF Grei find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 51–18–31
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Frigg 0–1 SF Grei
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Frigg win: 72% at kick-off, 51% now
15′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–1 · 51–19–31
18′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–19–32
30′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–21–35
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Frigg win: 72% at kick-off, 42% now
39′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–23–38
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' SF Grei win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Frigg win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Frigg 0–1 SF Grei
46′SECOND HALF Frigg 0–1 SF Grei
47′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–25–41
49′A goal for SF Grei on 49′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 15–18–67
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Frigg 0–2 SF Grei
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Frigg win: 72% at kick-off, 15% now
50′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–18–68
51′SF Grei score on 51′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 5–9–86
51′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–3 · 5–9–86
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Frigg 0–3 SF Grei
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Frigg win: 72% at kick-off, 5% now
52′Goals are coming at about the 5.5 we expected. 0–3 · 5–8–87
53′We said Frigg at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–3 · 4–8–88
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Frigg win: 72% at kick-off, 2% now
81′SF Grei find the net on 80′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Frigg 0–4 SF Grei
FTFULL TIME Frigg 0–4 SF Grei
FTFrigg 0–4 SF Grei · Frigg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frigg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Frigg 72%, draw 13%, SF Grei 15%. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Frigg v SF GreiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Frigg win72%

Draw13%

SF Grei win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Frigg

SF Grei

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Frigg	24	−5	33
12	SF Grei	24	−29	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frigg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Frigg a 72% chance to win. The model expects 3.7–1.8, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Frigg v SF Grei~~3.72 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 33 v 25~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Frigg win

Published at 75%, 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frigg win	72%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
SF Grei win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	91%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	79%	–	–
Frigg or draw	85%	–	–
Frigg clean sheet	17%	–	–
SF Grei clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.1%

0123450 1 2.8 2.5 2 3.0 5.1 4.4 2.6 3 3.6 6.1 5.3 3.2 4 3.3 5.6 4.9 2.9 5 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Frigg down, SF Grei across0–5 goals a side shown (81.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.5% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frigg at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SF Grei away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.72 goals for Frigg, 1.79 for SF Grei. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SFG 2–5 FRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept

FRIGG

WLDLLL2–0 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 0–6

SF GREI

LLWWWW2–3 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	25	+52	67
2	Heming	25	+26	50
3	Gamle Oslo	24	+27	44
4	IF Ready	25	+15	42
5	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
6	Bærum	24	+20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	25	+5	38
8	Frigg	24	−5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	25	−24	29
10	KFUM II	24	−13	28
11	Ullern	25	−13	26
12	SF Grei	24	−29	25
13	Nordstrand	25	−24	20
14	Konnerud	25	−28	17