Bærum v Ullern prediction · 3. Division - Girone 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Bærum 2–1 Ullern BÆRUM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bærum win~~68%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.155

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bærum win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bærum was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–15–18
1′KICK-OFF Bærum v Ullern
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Bærum win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
43′We said Bærum at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–24–19
45′HALF-TIME Bærum 0–0 Ullern
46′SECOND HALF Bærum 0–0 Ullern
48′We said Bærum at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–26–19
55′We expected about 4.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 51–30–19
58′We said Bærum at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–32–19
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Bærum win: 68% at kick-off, 48% now
65′We said Bærum at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
66′A goal for Bærum on 65′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
66′We published Bærum at 68%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bærum 1–0 Ullern
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Bærum win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
75′We published Bærum at 68%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bærum win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published Bærum at 68%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
87′Bærum score on 87′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Bærum 2–0 Ullern
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Bærum win: 68% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We published Bærum at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′Ullern find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Bærum 2–1 Ullern
94′We published Bærum at 68%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Bærum 2–1 Ullern
FTBærum 2–1 Ullern · Bærum win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bærum are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bærum 68%, draw 15%, Ullern 18%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Bærum v UllernBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bærum win68%

Draw15%

Ullern win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bærum

Ullern

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bærum	23	+19	35
11	Ullern	23	−18	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bærum winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market53%

Us68%

~~Market~~53%

We make Bærum a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bærum v Ullern~~3.20 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 35 v 23~~6 v 11

~~The market · Bærum win~~53% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bærum win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bærum win	68%	53%	+15
Draw	15%	20%	−5
Ullern win	18%	27%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	85%	82%	+3
Both teams to score	76%	78%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	95%	92%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	70%	65%	+5
Bærum or draw	82%	73%	+9
Bærum clean sheet	20%	–	–
Ullern clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.9%

0123450 1 2.8 4.1 3.5 2 4.1 6.6 5.3 2.9 3 4.3 6.9 5.6 3.1 4 3.4 5.4 4.4 2.4 5 2.2 3.5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Bærum down, Ullern across0–5 goals a side shown (88.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bærum at home: 3.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ullern away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.20 goals for Bærum, 1.64 for Ullern. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ULL 0–3 BAE · BAE 4–2 ULL · ULL 1–2 BAE · ULL 1–1 BAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BÆRUM

WLLLLL1–0 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–4

ULLERN

LLWLWL2–6 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	23	+48	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	+28	44
3	Heming	23	+22	44
4	Vålerenga II	23	−5	40
5	IF Ready	23	+16	39
6	Bærum	23	+19	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	+4	35
8	Frigg	23	+1	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	−24	26
10	KFUM II	23	−19	25
11	Ullern	23	−18	23
12	SF Grei	23	−30	22
13	Nordstrand	23	−16	20
14	Konnerud	23	−26	17