Asker v Frigg prediction · 3. Division - Girone 1

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Asker 3–2 Frigg ASKER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asker win~~68%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.072

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asker win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Asker 68% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–14–17
1′KICK-OFF Asker v Frigg
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Asker 1–0 Frigg
12′Asker find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–10–8
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Asker win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
13′We said Asker at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–10–8
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Asker 2–0 Frigg
17′A goal for Asker on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–5–3
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Asker win: 68% at kick-off, 92% now
19′We said Asker at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–5–3
30′The goal count is tracking the 5.3 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–2
45′HALF-TIME Asker 2–0 Frigg
46′SECOND HALF Asker 2–0 Frigg
56′We said Asker at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Asker 2–1 Frigg
62′60′ and it is 2–1: Frigg have scored. 2–1 · 81–15–5
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Asker win: 68% at kick-off, 81% now
67′61′ and it is 2–1: E. H. Lenoci L. on the scoresheet for Frigg. 2–1 · 81–15–4
75′Asker find the net on 74′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Asker 3–1 Frigg
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Asker win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
85′We said Asker at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′A goal for Frigg on 89′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
90′E. H. Lenoci L. scores for Frigg on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Asker 3–2 Frigg
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Asker win: 68% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Asker 3–2 Frigg
FTAsker 3–2 Frigg · Asker win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Asker v FriggBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Asker win68%

Draw14%

Frigg win18%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueFoyka Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Asker

Frigg

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asker winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

68% The market78%

Us68%

~~Market~~78%

We make Asker a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asker v Frigg~~3.47 – 1.83

~~Last six in 3. Division - Girone 1~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 58 v 33~~1 v 8

~~The market · Asker win~~78% · ours 68%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · asker win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asker win	68%	78%	−10
Draw	14%	13%	+1
Frigg win	18%	9%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	89%	83%	+6
Both teams to score	80%	69%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	96%	94%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Asker or draw	82%	91%	−9
Asker clean sheet	17%	–	–
Frigg clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.2%

0123450 1 3.2 3.0 2 3.1 5.5 4.9 3.0 3 3.5 6.2 5.5 3.4 4 3.0 5.3 4.7 2.9 5 2.1 3.7 3.3 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Asker down, Frigg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.2% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Asker at home: 3.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Frigg away: 2.17 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.47 goals for Asker, 1.83 for Frigg. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FRI 1–2 ASK

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1

ASKER

WWWWLW6–2 · 7–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 4–2

FRIGG

WLWLDL5–2 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	22	47	58
2	Gamle Oslo	23	28	44
3	Heming	23	22	44
4	Vålerenga II	23	-5	40
5	IF Ready	23	16	39
6	Bærum	23	19	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	4	35
8	Frigg	22	2	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	-24	26
10	KFUM II	23	-19	25
11	Ullern	23	-18	23
12	SF Grei	23	-30	22
13	Nordstrand	23	-16	20
14	Konnerud	23	-26	17