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Asker v Bærum

Asker

4–2Full time

Bærum

3. Division - Girone 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Foyka Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Asker 4–2 Bærum ASKER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asker win~~63%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.201

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asker win at 63%.
1′KICK-OFF Asker v Bærum
3′Asker find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 63–16–21
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Asker 1–0 Bærum · J. Johansen
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Asker 2–0 Bærum
23′J. Johansen scores for Asker on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Asker win: 63% at kick-off, 91% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Asker 2–1 Bærum
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Asker 3–1 Bærum
43′Asker find the net on 41′. 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–2
45′HALF-TIME Asker 3–1 Bærum
49′We said Asker at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–1 · 93–5–2
49′SECOND HALF Asker 3–1 Bærum
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Asker win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Asker 3–2 Bærum
70′K. Coric scores for Bærum on 63′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 81–15–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Asker win: 63% at kick-off, 81% now
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Asker 4–2 Bærum
88′⚽ GOAL · 4' Asker 4–2 Bærum · J. Johansen
88′⚽ GOAL · 13' Asker 4–2 Bærum · J. Johansen
88′⚽ GOAL · 38' Asker 4–2 Bærum · L. Bransdal
88′⚽ GOAL · 41' Asker 4–2 Bærum · J. Johansen
88′⚽ GOAL · 63' Asker 4–2 Bærum · K. Coric
88′⚽ GOAL · 71' Asker 4–2 Bærum · K. Syvertsen
90′71′ and it is 4–2: K. Syvertsen on the scoresheet for Asker. 4–2 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Asker win: 63% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Asker 4–2 Bærum
FTAsker 4–2 Bærum · Asker win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Asker win63%

Draw16%

Bærum win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Foyka Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asker winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

63% The market63%

Us63%

~~Market~~63%

We make Asker a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 3.1–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · asker win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asker win	63%	63%	0
Draw	16%	19%	−3
Bærum win	21%	18%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	86%	79%	+8
Both teams to score	79%	73%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	95%	91%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	71%	62%	+10
Asker or draw	79%	82%	−3
Asker clean sheet	17%	–	–
Bærum clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.4%

0123450 1 2.6 4.2 3.8 2.3 2 3.6 6.3 5.7 3.4 3 3.7 6.4 5.7 3.5 4 2.8 4.9 4.4 2.7 5 3.1 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Asker down, Bærum across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.7% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Asker at home: 4.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bærum away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.10 goals for Asker, 1.81 for Bærum. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BAE 2–4 ASK

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1

ASKER

WWWWWL5–2 · 6–2 · 7–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–4

BÆRUM

DWLLLL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	21	+45	55
2	Heming	22	+22	43
3	Gamle Oslo	22	+27	41
4	Vålerenga II	22	−8	37
5	IF Ready	22	+12	36
6	Bærum	22	+21	35
7	Union Carl Berner	22	+8	35
8	Frigg	21	+5	33
9	KFUM II	22	−19	24
10	Ullern	22	−16	23
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	22	−25	23
12	Nordstrand	22	−15	20
13	SF Grei	22	−32	19
14	Konnerud	22	−25	17