Ull/Kisa v Lørenskog prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Ull/Kisa 0–4 Lørenskog LØRENSKOG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lørenskog win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.451

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lørenskog win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lørenskog 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 39–20–41
1′KICK-OFF Ull/Kisa v Lørenskog
6′Lørenskog find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–18–61
6′We said Lørenskog at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 61%. 0–1 · 21–18–61
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Ull/Kisa 0–1 Lørenskog
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Lørenskog win: 41% at kick-off, 61% now
12′A goal for Lørenskog on 11′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 9–11–80
12′We said Lørenskog at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–2 · 9–11–80
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ull/Kisa 0–2 Lørenskog
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Lørenskog win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Lørenskog win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
17′T. Etholm scores for Lørenskog on 12′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–11–81
32′Lørenskog score on 32′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 2–4–94
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Ull/Kisa 0–3 Lørenskog
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Lørenskog win: 41% at kick-off, 94% now
33′We said Lørenskog at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–3 · 2–4–94
34′We said Lørenskog at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–3 · 2–4–95
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Ull/Kisa
45′HALF-TIME Ull/Kisa 0–4 Lørenskog
46′Lørenskog find the net on 45′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–1–99
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Ull/Kisa 0–4 Lørenskog
46′SECOND HALF Ull/Kisa 0–4 Lørenskog
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ull/Kisa · On: F. Eriksen · Off: E. Naustdal
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ull/Kisa · On: D. Lyngstad · Off: S. Ostadi
54′We said Lørenskog at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lørenskog · On: L. Folstad · Off: T. Etholm
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lørenskog · On: D. Brandal · Off: K. Serafin
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lørenskog · On: M. Viseth · Off: B. Hylen
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Ull/Kisa
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ull/Kisa · On: S. Barane · Off: K. Skarpsno
80′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 0–4 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ull/Kisa · On: N. S. Andreassen · Off: U. Ignjic
FTFULL TIME Ull/Kisa 0–4 Lørenskog
FTUll/Kisa 0–4 Lørenskog · Lørenskog win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lørenskog just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ull/Kisa 39%, draw 19%, Lørenskog 41%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Ull/Kisa v LørenskogBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ull/Kisa win39%

Draw19%

Lørenskog win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueJessheim Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ull/Kisa

Lørenskog

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Lørenskog	24	−5	34
13	Ull/Kisa	24	−48	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lørenskog winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Lørenskog a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ull/Kisa v Lørenskog~~2.00 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 34~~13 v 8

~~The market · Lørenskog win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lørenskog win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ull/Kisa win	39%	32%	+7
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Lørenskog win	41%	45%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Both teams to score	74%	71%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	86%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	57%	52%	+5
Ull/Kisa or draw	59%	55%	+4
Ull/Kisa clean sheet	14%	–	–
Lørenskog clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.1%

0123450 4.1 3.7 2.6 1 4.1 6.8 7.1 4.9 2.5 2 3.6 7.0 7.0 4.7 2.5 3 2.4 4.7 4.6 3.1 4 2.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ull/Kisa down, Lørenskog across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,078 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ull/Kisa at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lørenskog away: 0.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Ull/Kisa, 2.06 for Lørenskog. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LOR 5–1 ULL · LOR 1–2 ULL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept

ULL/KISA

LLLLWL1–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–4

LØRENSKOG

WLWLDL1–0 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	24	+36	57
2	Kjelsås	24	+22	53
3	Levanger	24	+28	49
4	Hønefoss	24	+24	49
5	Grorud	24	+20	46
6	Stjørdals-Blink	24	+1	36
7	Tromsdalen Uil	24	+1	35
8	Lørenskog	24	−5	34
9	Junkeren	24	−8	31
10	Rana	24	−5	30
11	Skeid	24	−15	23
12	Follo	24	−21	17
13	Ull/Kisa	24	−48	13
14	Trygg/Lade	24	−30	10