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Ull/Kisa v Follo

Ull/Kisa

4–2Full time

Follo

2. Division - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Jessheim Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:52

Ull/Kisa 4–2 Follo ULL/KISA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ull/Kisa win~~49%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.716

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ull/Kisa win49%

Draw20%

Follo win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Jessheim Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ull/Kisa

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Sveinhaug

4 S. Bjorkkjaer

5 E. Brennhaugen

22 J. Prent-Eckbo

24 E. Bjornsengen

7 E. Naustdal

8 U. Ignjic

21 C. Kjensteberg

10 E. Solberg

11 S. Barane

20 K. Skarpsno

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. M. Martinsen

3 · E. Bramsen

9 · F. Eriksen

14 · A. Empa

16 · A. Riiser

18 · S. Ostadi

19 · N. Loulanti

26 · D. Lyngstad

27 · A. Sorensen

Follo

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Rod

3 R. M. Jabari S.

4 H. Hagen

27 J. Jorde

32 J. Granli

6 F. Lokaj

18 S. Martinsen-Wold

21 M. Braten

24 L. Folstad-Andersen

28 N. Schmidt-Lovlund

9 A. Tjaland

Coach · Oliver Harder

Substitutes

1 · F. Hoel

2 · J. Maturire

5 · H. Ludvigsen

7 · H. Diallo

8 · E. Tjostheim

11 · N. Skoglund

15 · A. Nysted

17 · M. Fofana

23 · A. Hrustic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ull/Kisa

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Sveinhaug

4 S. Bjorkkjaer

5 E. Brennhaugen

22 J. Prent-Eckbo

24 E. Bjornsengen

7 E. Naustdal

8 U. Ignjic

21 C. Kjensteberg

10 E. Solberg

11 S. Barane

20 K. Skarpsno

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. M. Martinsen

3 · E. Bramsen

9 · F. Eriksen

14 · A. Empa

16 · A. Riiser

18 · S. Ostadi

19 · N. Loulanti

26 · D. Lyngstad

27 · A. Sorensen

Follo

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Rod

3 R. M. Jabari S.

4 H. Hagen

27 J. Jorde

32 J. Granli

6 F. Lokaj

18 S. Martinsen-Wold

21 M. Braten

24 L. Folstad-Andersen

28 N. Schmidt-Lovlund

9 A. Tjaland

Coach · Oliver Harder

Substitutes

1 · F. Hoel

2 · J. Maturire

5 · H. Ludvigsen

7 · H. Diallo

8 · E. Tjostheim

11 · N. Skoglund

15 · A. Nysted

17 · M. Fofana

23 · A. Hrustic

Our number · ull/kisa winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

49% The market32%

Us49%

~~Market~~32%

We make Ull/Kisa a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ull/kisa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ull/Kisa win	49%	32%	+17
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Follo win	32%	45%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	72%	−2
Both teams to score	68%	72%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Ull/Kisa or draw	68%	55%	+13
Ull/Kisa clean sheet	20%	–	–
Follo clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.2 4.8 3.4 1 5.8 7.8 6.7 3.6 2 5.4 8.4 6.7 3.7 3 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.5 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ull/Kisa down, Follo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,064 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ull/Kisa at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Follo away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Ull/Kisa, 1.63 for Follo. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FOL 1–2 ULL · ULL 2–1 FOL · FOL 1–4 ULL · FOL 3–0 ULL

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2

ULL/KISA

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

FOLLO

LWLLDL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	22	+34	51
2	Kjelsås	22	+19	47
3	Levanger	22	+26	45
4	Hønefoss	22	+23	45
5	Grorud	22	+20	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	0	33
7	Lørenskog	22	−4	33
8	Tromsdalen Uil	22	+1	32
9	Junkeren	22	−5	31
10	Rana	22	−1	30
11	Skeid	22	−18	20
12	Follo	22	−21	14
13	Ull/Kisa	22	−46	10
14	Trygg/Lade	22	−28	9