Skeid v Ull/Kisa prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Skeid 4–0 Ull/Kisa SKEID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skeid win~~60%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.239

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.205

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skeid win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Skeid was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–17–23
1′KICK-OFF Skeid v Ull/Kisa
27′Skeid find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Skeid 1–0 Ull/Kisa
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Skeid win: 60% at kick-off, 77% now
28′We published Skeid at 60%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
31′A goal for Skeid on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
31′We published Skeid at 60%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–3
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Skeid 2–0 Ull/Kisa
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Skeid win: 60% at kick-off, 91% now
34′Goals are coming at about the 4.3 we expected. 2–0 · 92–6–2
36′Skeid score on 36′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–1
36′We published Skeid at 60%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Skeid 3–0 Ull/Kisa
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Skeid
45′HALF-TIME Skeid 3–0 Ull/Kisa
46′SECOND HALF Skeid 3–0 Ull/Kisa
47′Skeid find the net on 47′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′We published Skeid at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Skeid
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Skeid 4–0 Ull/Kisa
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Skeid win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ull/Kisa · On: D. Lyngstad · Off: E. Naustdal
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ull/Kisa · On: S. A. Butt · Off: S. Ostadi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Skeid · On: F. Stensland · Off: D. Bakkane
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Skeid
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Skeid · On: L. Svenningsen · Off: A. Akinyemi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ull/Kisa · On: A. Empa · Off: K. Skarpsno
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Ull/Kisa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Skeid · On: K. Ghaedamini · Off: M. Abbas
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ull/Kisa · On: A. Sorensen · Off: E. Bjornsengen
FTFULL TIME Skeid 4–0 Ull/Kisa
FTSkeid 4–0 Ull/Kisa · Skeid win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skeid are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skeid 60%, draw 17%, Ull/Kisa 23%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Skeid v Ull/KisaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skeid win60%

Draw17%

Ull/Kisa win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Line-ups

Skeid

Ull/Kisa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skeid

Ull/Kisa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Skeid

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Markdal

3 S. Ekroll

4 H. Altai

6 A. Hadzic

9 K. Bandeh

14 B. Ba

15 M. Dubois

17 J. Kvernstuen

23 A. Akinyemi

26 M. Abbas

99 D. Bakkane

Coach · Vilde Rislaa

Substitutes

2 · L. Svenningsen

5 · K. Ghaedamini

8 · F. Stensland

19 · T. Myhre

22 · S. Ekornes

24 · J. Abrahamsen

27 · N. Jakobsen

Ull/Kisa

Formation not confirmed

4 S. Bjorkkjaer

5 E. Brennhaugen

7 E. Naustdal

8 U. Ignjic

10 E. Solberg

18 S. Ostadi

20 K. Skarpsno

21 C. Kjensteberg

22 J. Prent-Eckbo

24 E. Bjornsengen

31 J. Sveinhaug

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Bramsen

9 · F. Eriksen

12 · J. M. Martinsen

14 · A. Empa

25 · S. A. Butt

26 · D. Lyngstad

27 · A. Sorensen

28 · N. S. Andreassen

Our number · skeid winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market63%

Us60%

~~Market~~63%

We make Skeid a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skeid v Ull/Kisa~~2.70 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 13~~11 v 13

~~The market · Skeid win~~63% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skeid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skeid win	60%	63%	−3
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Ull/Kisa win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	79%	72%	+7
Both teams to score	73%	67%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	92%	88%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	62%	53%	+9
Skeid or draw	77%	82%	−5
Skeid clean sheet	20%	–	–
Ull/Kisa clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.7 1 4.2 5.6 4.8 2.6 2 4.9 7.6 6.1 3.3 3 4.3 6.7 5.3 2.9 4 2.9 4.5 3.6 5 2.5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Skeid down, Ull/Kisa across0–5 goals a side shown (92.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,071 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skeid at home: 2.67 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ull/Kisa away: 0.50 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.70 goals for Skeid, 1.62 for Ull/Kisa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ULL 5–3 SKE · ULL 2–3 SKE · ULL 0–1 SKE · SKE 0–2 ULL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SKEID

WLLLWL4–1 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–2

ULL/KISA

LLLLLW0–5 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	23	+35	54
2	Kjelsås	23	+21	50
3	Levanger	23	+26	46
4	Hønefoss	23	+23	46
5	Grorud	23	+22	46
6	Tromsdalen Uil	23	+2	35
7	Lørenskog	23	−4	34
8	Stjørdals-Blink	23	−1	33
9	Junkeren	23	−7	31
10	Rana	23	−3	30
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
12	Follo	23	−23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	23	−28	10