Lørenskog v Trygg/Lade prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Lørenskog 3–3 Trygg/Lade LØRENSKOG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lørenskog win~~61%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.078

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.011

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lørenskog win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lørenskog 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
2′Little has changed for our model: Lørenskog 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
24′19′ and it is 0–1: M. Vollan on the scoresheet for Trygg/Lade. 0–1 · 30–25–45
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Trygg/Lade win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Lørenskog win 30%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Lørenskog win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Trygg/Lade win 19%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
25′19′ and it is 0–1: M. Vollan on the scoresheet for Trygg/Lade. 0–1 · 30–26–45
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Lørenskog win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Trygg/Lade win 19%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Trygg/Lade win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Lørenskog win 30%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Lørenskog 1–1 Trygg/Lade
45′Lørenskog ahead on 32′ through S. Nilsen-Modebe. 1–1. 1–1 · 48–32–20
45′HALF-TIME Lørenskog 1–1 Trygg/Lade
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Lørenskog win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Trygg/Lade win 20%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Trygg/Lade win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Lørenskog win 30%)
46′SECOND HALF Lørenskog 1–1 Trygg/Lade
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lørenskog · On: T. Etholm · Off: V. Holsaether
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Lørenskog win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lørenskog 1–2 Trygg/Lade
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Trygg/Lade · On: J. Bohle · Off: B. Kvithyld
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Trygg/Lade · On: S. Greiff · Off: S. Hansen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lørenskog · On: M. P. Bal Singh · Off: S. Nilsen-Modebe
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lørenskog · On: A. Harvey · Off: S. Werni
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Lørenskog 1–3 Trygg/Lade
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lørenskog · On: L. Folstad · Off: K. Serafin
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Lørenskog 1–3 Trygg/Lade
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Lørenskog 2–3 Trygg/Lade
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Trygg/Lade
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Trygg/Lade
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Lørenskog 3–3 Trygg/Lade
FTFULL TIME Lørenskog 3–3 Trygg/Lade
FTLørenskog 3–3 Trygg/Lade · Lørenskog win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lørenskog win61%

Draw19%

Trygg/Lade win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueRolvsrud stadion

Line-ups

Lørenskog

Trygg/Lade

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lørenskog

Trygg/Lade

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lørenskog	22	−4	33
14	Trygg/Lade	22	−28	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lørenskog

Formation not confirmed

2 H. S. Navarsete

5 E. Farstad

7 S. Werni

10 S. Nilsen-Modebe

14 M. Kuci

16 S. Richardsen

17 M. Aadnoy

21 V. Holsaether

22 O. Drevland

23 K. Serafin

24 D. Zeneli

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Christensen

3 · B. Kadri

6 · A. Harvey

8 · L. Folstad

11 · T. Etholm

15 · M. Viseth

20 · M. P. Bal Singh

25 · H. Hagen

27 · L. Dahlstrom

Trygg/Lade

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Finseth

7 S. Hansen

11 T. Skattum-Dahl

16 H. E. Kleiven

18 S. Halgunset

21 M. Flotve

23 A. Ekseth

24 O. J. Elvedahl

26 E. Flottorp

28 B. Kvithyld

77 M. Vollan

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · F. Brattbakk

3 · S. Greiff

5 · V. Bergersen

6 · J. Bohle

13 · C. Flage

19 · F. S. Thomassen

Our number · lørenskog winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

61% The market59%

Us61%

~~Market~~59%

We make Lørenskog a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lørenskog win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lørenskog win	61%	59%	+2
Draw	19%	21%	−3
Trygg/Lade win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Lørenskog or draw	80%	81%	−1
Lørenskog clean sheet	31%	–	–
Trygg/Lade clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.0 4.6 2.4 1 8.0 8.1 5.1 2.1 2 8.1 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 6.0 6.9 4.1 4 3.4 3.9 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lørenskog down, Trygg/Lade across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,066 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lørenskog at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trygg/Lade away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Lørenskog, 1.19 for Trygg/Lade. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRY 1–4 LOR

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2

LØRENSKOG

LDWLWL0–5 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 0–4

TRYGG/LADE

DLLLLL1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	23	+35	54
2	Kjelsås	22	+19	47
3	Levanger	22	+26	45
4	Hønefoss	22	+23	45
5	Grorud	22	+20	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	0	33
7	Lørenskog	22	−4	33
8	Tromsdalen Uil	22	+1	32
9	Junkeren	22	−5	31
10	Rana	22	−1	30
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
12	Follo	23	−23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	22	−28	9