Levanger v Rana prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Levanger 3–1 Rana LEVANGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levanger win~~63%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.203

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.137

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levanger win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Levanger was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
1′KICK-OFF Levanger v Rana
4′A goal for Levanger on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Levanger 1–0 Rana
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Levanger win: 63% at kick-off, 81% now
5′We published Levanger at 63%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Levanger
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 81–13–5
36′Levanger score on 35′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
36′We published Levanger at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Levanger 2–0 Rana
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Levanger win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Levanger 2–0 Rana
46′SECOND HALF Levanger 2–0 Rana
55′Levanger find the net on 55′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Levanger 3–0 Rana
56′We published Levanger at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′A goal for Rana on 62′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: Y. Saad · Off: S. Hagen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: M. B. Nilsskog · Off: D. Navaratnam
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Levanger 3–1 Rana
63′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Levanger · On: K. Ulstad · Off: S. Beyene
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Levanger · On: H. Berge · Off: I. Holmen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Levanger · On: M. Moen · Off: E. Togersen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rana · On: E. Falstad · Off: S. Bratvold
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rana · On: E. Grimeland · Off: J. Olufsen
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Levanger
FTFULL TIME Levanger 3–1 Rana
FTLevanger 3–1 Rana · Levanger win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levanger are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levanger 63%, draw 18%, Rana 18%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Levanger v RanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Levanger win63%

Draw18%

Rana win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueTobb Arena Levanger

Line-ups

Levanger

Rana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levanger

Rana

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Levanger	23	+26	46
10	Rana	23	−3	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Levanger

Formation not confirmed

2 D. Pollen

3 J. Myklebust

5 H. Lorentsen

7 E. Hajdari

9 E. Togersen

12 C. Lundhall

14 I. Holmen

15 S. Beyene

20 J. Horten

21 M. Holte

30 O. Bjornli

Coach · Sondre Aas Jo

Substitutes

1 · S. Gunnarsson

6 · K. Ulstad

8 · H. Berge

18 · M. Moen

19 · S. Valstad

22 · P. Johansen

23 · M. Hostland

31 · I. Skreden

Rana

Formation not confirmed

4 F. J. Engedal

5 A. Selliah

6 D. Navaratnam

8 B. Froysa

9 S. Bratvold

10 A. Teigen

11 J. Olufsen

17 S. Hagen

20 N. Aas

24 F. Bergslid

28 H. Bordal

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · J. Thuv

15 · Y. Saad

19 · M. B. Nilsskog

21 · E. Falstad

22 · E. Grimeland

33 · S. Romslo

Our number · levanger winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

63% The market70%

Us63%

~~Market~~70%

We make Levanger a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levanger v Rana~~2.26 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 46 v 30~~3 v 10

~~The market · Levanger win~~70% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Levanger win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levanger win	63%	70%	−7
Draw	18%	17%	+1
Rana win	18%	13%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	65%	72%	−7
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	87%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	43%	53%	−10
Levanger or draw	82%	87%	−5
Levanger clean sheet	34%	–	–
Rana clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.2 4.5 2.2 1 8.4 8.1 4.8 2 8.7 9.4 5.2 3 6.5 7.0 3.9 4 3.7 4.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levanger down, Rana across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,071 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levanger at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rana away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Levanger, 1.11 for Rana. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RAN 2–3 LEV · LEV 0–2 RAN · RAN 1–0 LEV · LEV 1–2 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

LEVANGER

WWWLLD5–0 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–0

RANA

LLLWWL2–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	23	+35	54
2	Kjelsås	23	+21	50
3	Levanger	23	+26	46
4	Hønefoss	23	+23	46
5	Grorud	23	+22	46
6	Tromsdalen Uil	23	+2	35
7	Lørenskog	23	−4	34
8	Stjørdals-Blink	23	−1	33
9	Junkeren	23	−7	31
10	Rana	23	−3	30
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
12	Follo	23	−23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	23	−28	10