Levanger v Hønefoss prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Levanger 0–0 Hønefoss LEVANGER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levanger win~~52%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.019

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.921

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levanger win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Levanger was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–20–28
1′KICK-OFF Levanger v Hønefoss
3′Much as we predicted: Levanger was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–20–28
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Hønefoss
45′HALF-TIME Levanger 0–0 Hønefoss
46′SECOND HALF Levanger 0–0 Hønefoss
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hønefoss · On: E. Sawaneh · Off: A. F. Gurendal
73′🟨 YELLOW · 42' A. F. Gurendal · Hønefoss
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hønefoss · On: E. Sawaneh · Off: A. F. Gurendal
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Levanger · On: H. Berge · Off: I. Holmen
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Levanger
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hønefoss · On: T. Murray · Off: T. Naustdal
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Levanger · On: P. Johansen · Off: M. Holte
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Hønefoss
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Levanger
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Hønefoss · On: E. Overby · Off: B. Pedersen
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' O. Bjornli · Levanger
FTFULL TIME Levanger 0–0 Hønefoss
FTLevanger 0–0 Hønefoss · Levanger win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Levanger win52%

Draw19%

Hønefoss win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueTobb Arena Levanger

Line-ups

Levanger

Hønefoss

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Levanger

Hønefoss

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Levanger	22	+26	45
4	Hønefoss	22	+23	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Levanger

Formation not confirmed

12 C. Lundhall

2 D. Pollen

3 J. Myklebust

5 H. Lorentsen

6 K. Ulstad

7 E. Hajdari

9 E. Togersen

14 I. Holmen

15 S. Beyene

21 M. Holte

30 O. Bjornli

Coach · Sondre Aas Jo

Substitutes

1 · S. Gunnarsson

22 · P. Johansen

18 · M. Moen

8 · H. Berge

23 · M. Hostland

31 · I. Skreden

19 · S. Valstad

Hønefoss

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Byttingsvik

7 O. Wang

4 S. Holte

18 L. Kyvik

14 A. Randers

15 J. Oya

17 T. Naustdal

21 S. Nestaker

20 A. F. Gurendal

9 H. Svensson

22 B. Pedersen

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Eggen

3 · L. Rydje

5 · T. Murray

30 · P. Hokstad

19 · E. Overby

28 · E. Sawaneh

Our number · levanger winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

52% The market52%

Us52%

~~Market~~52%

We make Levanger a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · levanger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levanger win	52%	52%	+1
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Hønefoss win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	75%	70%	+6
Both teams to score	72%	68%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	86%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	56%	50%	+6
Levanger or draw	71%	75%	−4
Levanger clean sheet	19%	–	–
Hønefoss clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 3.7 2.7 1 4.9 6.7 6.0 3.4 2 4.9 8.0 6.7 3.8 3 3.8 6.1 5.1 2.9 4 2.2 3.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levanger down, Hønefoss across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,066 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levanger at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hønefoss away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Levanger, 1.69 for Hønefoss. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HON 0–1 LEV · HON 2–0 LEV · LEV 4–0 HON

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2

LEVANGER

WWWWLL5–0 · 5–0 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–4

HØNEFOSS

WWDWWL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	23	+35	54
2	Kjelsås	22	+19	47
3	Levanger	22	+26	45
4	Hønefoss	22	+23	45
5	Grorud	22	+20	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	0	33
7	Lørenskog	22	−4	33
8	Tromsdalen Uil	22	+1	32
9	Junkeren	22	−5	31
10	Rana	22	−1	30
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
12	Follo	23	−23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	22	−28	9