Kjelsås v Rana prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Kjelsås 2–0 Rana KJELSÅS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kjelsås win~~64%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.197

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.116

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kjelsås win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Kjelsås v Rana
3′Little has changed for our model: Kjelsås 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
4′Little has changed for our model: Kjelsås 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Kjelsås
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kjelsås win: 64% at kick-off, 53% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kjelsås win: 64% at kick-off, 59% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kjelsås win: 64% at kick-off, 53% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Rana
45′HALF-TIME Kjelsås 0–0 Rana
46′SECOND HALF Kjelsås 0–0 Rana
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Kjelsås win: 64% at kick-off, 53% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kjelsås 1–0 Rana
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: F. J. Engedal · Off: J. Thuv
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: Y. Saad · Off: T. Olsen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: F. J. Engedal · Off: J. Thuv
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: Y. Saad · Off: T. Olsen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: F. J. Engedal · Off: J. Thuv
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rana · On: Y. Saad · Off: T. Olsen
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Rana
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rana · On: M. B. Nilsskog · Off: S. Bratvold
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rana · On: S. Hagen · Off: D. Navaratnam
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Kjelsås 2–0 Rana
81′⚽ GOAL · 77' Kjelsås 2–0 Rana · P. Askengren
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kjelsås · On: J. Hanstad · Off: O. Midtskogen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rana · On: M. Eds · Off: H. Bordal
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Rana
FTFULL TIME Kjelsås 2–0 Rana
FTKjelsås 2–0 Rana · Kjelsås win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kjelsås win64%

Draw17%

Rana win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueGrefsen Stadion

Line-ups

Kjelsås

Rana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kjelsås

Rana

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kjelsås	22	+19	47
10	Rana	22	−1	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kjelsås

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Wold

3 H. Meinseth

4 H. Vassdal

5 M. Rusten

9 P. Askengren

10 A. Abbas

11 O. Midtskogen

16 C. Petros

17 S. Olafsen

20 J. Holter

21 M. Solheim

Coach · Eivind Kampen

Substitutes

6 · K. Lamin

7 · T. Rekdal

12 · J. Knutsson

13 · E. Willumsen

14 · A. Vukicevic

19 · A. Mahammed

24 · E. Vestby

25 · J. Hanstad

27 · S. Graesdahl

Rana

Formation not confirmed

3 J. Thuv

5 A. Selliah

6 D. Navaratnam

7 T. Olsen

8 B. Froysa

9 S. Bratvold

10 A. Teigen

20 N. Aas

22 E. Grimeland

24 F. Bergslid

28 H. Bordal

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · M. Eds

4 · F. J. Engedal

12 · O. Wardzala

15 · Y. Saad

17 · S. Hagen

19 · M. B. Nilsskog

Our number · kjelsås winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

64% The market72%

Us64%

~~Market~~72%

We make Kjelsås a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kjelsås win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kjelsås win	64%	72%	−9
Draw	17%	16%	+1
Rana win	19%	11%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	70%	74%	−3
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	50%	54%	−5
Kjelsås or draw	81%	89%	−8
Kjelsås clean sheet	30%	–	–
Rana clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.3 3.8 2.0 1 6.9 7.2 4.7 2 7.5 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 6.0 7.2 4.4 4 3.7 4.4 2.7 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Kjelsås down, Rana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,066 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kjelsås at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rana away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Kjelsås, 1.24 for Rana. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RAN 2–3 KJE · RAN 0–3 KJE · KJE 2–2 RAN

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2

KJELSÅS

WLWLDW3–1 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1

RANA

WLLLWW2–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	23	+35	54
2	Kjelsås	22	+19	47
3	Levanger	22	+26	45
4	Hønefoss	22	+23	45
5	Grorud	22	+20	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	0	33
7	Lørenskog	22	−4	33
8	Tromsdalen Uil	22	+1	32
9	Junkeren	22	−5	31
10	Rana	22	−1	30
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
12	Follo	23	−23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	22	−28	9