Junkeren v Grorud prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Junkeren 1–3 Grorud GRORUD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grorud win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.314

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grorud win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Junkeren v Grorud
2′Much as we predicted: Grorud was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 24–23–54
3′Much as we predicted: Grorud was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 24–23–53
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Junkeren 1–0 Grorud
45′HALF-TIME Junkeren 1–0 Grorud
45′⚽ GOAL · 25' Junkeren 1–0 Grorud · I. Unhjem
46′SECOND HALF Junkeren 1–0 Grorud
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Junkeren
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Junkeren 1–1 Grorud
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Junkeren 1–2 Grorud
60′⚽ GOAL · 57' Junkeren 1–2 Grorud
60′⚽ GOAL · 57' Junkeren 1–2 Grorud · M. H. Haga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Junkeren · On: T. Kristiansen · Off: I. Unhjem
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Grorud
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' M. Sandrakumar · Grorud
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Junkeren 1–3 Grorud
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Grorud · On: M. Jatta · Off: T. Sosseh
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Grorud · On: E. R. Kalnaes · Off: J. Rasen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Grorud · On: J. Koko · Off: A. Tjomsland
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Junkeren · On: I. Lekang · Off: A. Hussein
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Junkeren
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Junkeren
FTFULL TIME Junkeren 1–3 Grorud
FTJunkeren 1–3 Grorud · Grorud win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Junkeren win25%

Draw21%

Grorud win54%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueNordlandshallen

Line-ups

Junkeren

Grorud

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Junkeren

Grorud

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Grorud	22	+20	43
9	Junkeren	22	−5	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Junkeren

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Hanssen

3 H. Myrseth

6 I. Strand

10 S. Chooly

15 A. Hussein

18 I. Helbostad

27 K. R. Moyo

30 J. R. Skottvoll

37 M. Antonsen

60 I. Unhjem

99 F. Skarn-Johansen

Coach · Thor Mikalsen

Substitutes

5 · J. Lamark

7 · E. Melstein

11 · I. Hammadou

12 · T. Skogmo

14 · B. Selvik

17 · A. Jakobsen

21 · I. Lekang

29 · T. Rengard

92 · T. Kristiansen

Grorud

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Andersson

2 M. Sandrakumar

4 T. Mrakovic

7 M. Larsen

8 A. Tjomsland

9 M. H. Haga

16 S. A. Marcello Silalahi

17 J. Rasen

19 M. Mahnin

23 T. Sosseh

24 W. Bjeglerud

Coach · Andreas Alrek

Substitutes

3 · B. Brevik

5 · W. Silfver-Ramage

6 · J. Koko

11 · C. Sorum

14 · E. R. Kalnaes

21 · A. Alemseged

31 · L. Langedal

42 · M. Jatta

Our number · grorud winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make Grorud a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · grorud win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Junkeren win	25%	21%	+4
Draw	21%	21%	0
Grorud win	54%	58%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	69%	−11
Both teams to score	56%	65%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	79%	85%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	49%	−14
Junkeren or draw	46%	42%	+3
Junkeren clean sheet	16%	–	–
Grorud clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.6 9.9 8.4 5.2 2.5 1 6.4 9.6 9.4 5.9 2.8 2 3.3 5.9 5.4 3.4 3 2.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Junkeren down, Grorud across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,066 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Junkeren at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Grorud away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Junkeren, 1.87 for Grorud. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GRO 3–0 JUN · GRO 5–0 JUN · JUN 2–5 GRO

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2

JUNKEREN

DDWWLW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

GRORUD

WDWWWW4–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	23	+35	54
2	Kjelsås	22	+19	47
3	Levanger	22	+26	45
4	Hønefoss	22	+23	45
5	Grorud	22	+20	43
6	Stjørdals-Blink	22	0	33
7	Lørenskog	22	−4	33
8	Tromsdalen Uil	22	+1	32
9	Junkeren	22	−5	31
10	Rana	22	−1	30
11	Skeid	23	−19	20
12	Follo	23	−23	14
13	Ull/Kisa	23	−44	13
14	Trygg/Lade	22	−28	9