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Home › Football › 2. Division - Group 2 › Hønefoss v Junkeren

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Hønefoss v Junkeren

Hønefoss
2–1Full time
Junkeren

2. Division - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Hønefoss 2–1 Junkeren HØNEFOSS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Hønefoss win70%
The market said76%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.131
The market’s Brier score0.091

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hønefoss win at 70%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Hønefoss 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–15–15
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Hønefoss v Junkeren
  4. 17′Hønefoss find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
  5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Hønefoss 1–0 Junkeren
  6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Hønefoss win: 70% at kick-off, 85% now
  7. 18′We said Hønefoss at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
  8. 21′We said Hønefoss at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–5
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 84–11–5
  10. 36′A goal for Junkeren on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 60–24–16
  11. 36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Hønefoss 1–1 Junkeren
  12. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hønefoss win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
  13. 39′H. Myrseth scores for Junkeren on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 59–25–16
  14. 41′We said Hønefoss at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–1 · 58–26–16
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Hønefoss 1–1 Junkeren
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Hønefoss 1–1 Junkeren
  17. 49′We said Hønefoss at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–30–16
  18. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Hønefoss win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
  19. 57′We said Hønefoss at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–35–16
  20. 64′We said Hønefoss at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–41–15
  21. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Hønefoss win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
  22. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Hønefoss win 40%)
  23. 69′We said Hønefoss at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–47–14
  24. 71′Hønefoss score on 69′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–2
  25. 71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hønefoss 2–1 Junkeren
  26. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Hønefoss win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
  27. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Hønefoss win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Junkeren · On: T. Kristiansen · Off: I. Unhjem
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hønefoss · On: E. Overby · Off: E. Sawaneh
  30. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Hønefoss
  31. 78′We said Hønefoss at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  32. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Hønefoss win: 70% at kick-off, 90% now
  33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hønefoss · On: A. Nagirnyi · Off: A. F. Gurendal
  34. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Junkeren
  35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hønefoss · On: P. Hokstad · Off: T. Naustdal
  36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Junkeren · On: I. Lekang · Off: S. Chooly
  37. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Junkeren · On: J. R. Skottvoll · Off: E. Melstein
  38. 86′We said Hønefoss at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  39. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Junkeren
  40. FTFULL TIME Hønefoss 2–1 Junkeren
  41. FTHønefoss 2–1 Junkeren · Hønefoss win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hønefoss are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hønefoss 70%, draw 15%, Junkeren 15%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Hønefoss v JunkerenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hønefoss win70%
Draw15%
Junkeren win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 24

Line-ups

Hønefoss

Junkeren

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hønefoss

Junkeren

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Hønefoss23+2346
9Junkeren23−731

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hønefoss

Formation not confirmed

6 O. Nilsen

7 O. Wang

14 A. Randers

15 J. Oya

17 T. Naustdal

18 L. Kyvik

20 A. F. Gurendal

21 S. Nestaker

22 B. Pedersen

26 J. Byttingsvik

28 E. Sawaneh

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Eggen

3 · L. Rydje

4 · S. Holte

11 · W. Pozo-Venta

19 · E. Overby

24 · A. Roine-Elsrud

25 · E. Lafton

30 · P. Hokstad

95 · A. Nagirnyi

Junkeren

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Hanssen

3 H. Myrseth

5 J. Lamark

6 I. Strandin

7 E. Melstein

10 S. Chooly

15 A. Hussein

18 I. Helbostad

27 K. R. Moyo

37 M. Antonsen

60 I. Unhjem

Coach · Thor Mikalsen

Substitutes

11 · I. Hammadou

17 · A. Jakobsen

21 · I. Lekang

23 · M. Andersen

30 · J. R. Skottvoll

92 · T. Kristiansen

Our number · hønefoss winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off
70% The market76%
Us70%
Market76%

We make Hønefoss a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hønefoss v Junkeren2.78 – 1.18
Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 6 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 46 v 314 v 9
The market · Hønefoss win76% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Hønefoss win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hønefoss win70%76%−6
Draw15%15%0
Junkeren win15%10%+5
Over 2.5 goals75%79%−4
Both teams to score64%65%−1
Over 1.5 goals90%90%0
Over 3.5 goals55%62%−7
Hønefoss or draw85%90%−5
Hønefoss clean sheet31%––
Junkeren clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%
0123450 2.8 1 5.8 6.0 3.7 2 7.4 8.4 5.0 2.0 3 6.7 7.7 4.5 4 4.7 5.3 3.1 5 2.7 3.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Hønefoss down, Junkeren across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting7.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsJUN 4–3 HON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

HØNEFOSS

WDWWLD3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 0–0

JUNKEREN

DWWLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Eidsvold23+3554
2Kjelsås24+2253
3Levanger24+2849
4Hønefoss23+2346
5Grorud24+2046
6Stjørdals-Blink24+136
7Tromsdalen Uil23+235
8Lørenskog24−534
9Junkeren23−731
10Rana24−530
11Skeid24−1523
12Follo24−2117
13Ull/Kisa24−4813
14Trygg/Lade24−3010

The competition's standings before kick-off.