Follo v Skeid prediction · 2. Division - Group 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Follo 2–0 Skeid FOLLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Follo win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.649

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Follo win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Follo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–22–38
1′KICK-OFF Follo v Skeid
37′A goal for Follo on 37′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–12
37′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–12
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Follo 1–0 Skeid
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Follo win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
45′HALF-TIME Follo 1–0 Skeid
46′SECOND HALF Follo 1–0 Skeid
52′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Follo win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Follo · On: S. Martinsen-Wold · Off: E. Tjostheim
65′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Skeid · On: A. M. Badiane · Off: D. Bakkane
73′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Follo win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
79′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Follo · On: M. Fofana · Off: L. Folstad-Andersen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Skeid · On: L. Svenningsen · Off: A. Akinyemi
84′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Skeid · On: S. Ekornes · Off: J. Kvernstuen
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Follo win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Follo
90′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′Follo score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′We published Follo at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Follo 2–0 Skeid
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Follo win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Follo · On: H. Ludvigsen · Off: J. Maturire
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Follo · On: A. Nysted · Off: A. Tjaland
FTFULL TIME Follo 2–0 Skeid
FTFollo 2–0 Skeid · Follo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Follo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Follo 40%, draw 22%, Skeid 38%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Follo v SkeidBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Follo win40%

Draw22%

Skeid win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueLanghus kunstgress

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Follo

Skeid

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Skeid	24	−15	23
12	Follo	24	−21	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · follo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Follo a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Follo v Skeid~~1.70 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~12 v 11

~~The market · Follo win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Follo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Follo win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Skeid win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Follo or draw	62%	59%	+3
Follo clean sheet	20%	–	–
Skeid clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 6.5 4.9 2.7 1 6.7 9.3 7.9 4.3 2 5.2 8.1 6.6 3.6 3 2.9 4.6 3.7 2.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Follo down, Skeid across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,078 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Follo at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Skeid away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Follo, 1.64 for Skeid. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SKE 2–0 FOL · SKE 6–0 FOL · FOL 0–1 SKE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

FOLLO

LLDLLW2–5 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 3–1

SKEID

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–6 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	24	+36	57
2	Kjelsås	24	+22	53
3	Levanger	24	+28	49
4	Hønefoss	24	+24	49
5	Grorud	24	+20	46
6	Stjørdals-Blink	24	+1	36
7	Tromsdalen Uil	24	+1	35
8	Lørenskog	24	−5	34
9	Junkeren	24	−8	31
10	Rana	24	−5	30
11	Skeid	24	−15	23
12	Follo	24	−21	17
13	Ull/Kisa	24	−48	13
14	Trygg/Lade	24	−30	10