Eidsvold v Hønefoss prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Eidsvold 4–1 Hønefoss EIDSVOLD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eidsvold win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.336

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eidsvold are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eidsvold 53%, draw 19%, Hønefoss 28%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Eidsvold v HønefossBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Eidsvold win53%

Draw19%

Hønefoss win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueMyhrer Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eidsvold

Hønefoss

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Division - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eidsvold winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Eidsvold a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eidsvold v Hønefoss~~2.21 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 57 v 49~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eidsvold win

Published at 52%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eidsvold win	53%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Hønefoss win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Eidsvold or draw	72%	–	–
Eidsvold clean sheet	22%	–	–
Hønefoss clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.1 4.2 2.9 1 5.7 7.5 6.1 3.2 2 5.7 8.5 6.6 3.4 3 4.2 6.2 4.8 2.5 4 2.4 3.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eidsvold down, Hønefoss across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,078 2. Division - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eidsvold at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hønefoss away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Eidsvold, 1.55 for Hønefoss. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HON 2–1 EID · HON 2–2 EID · EID 2–1 HON · EID 4–1 HON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept

EIDSVOLD

WWWLWW3–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

HØNEFOSS

DWWLDW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eidsvold	24	+36	57
2	Kjelsås	24	+22	53
3	Levanger	24	+28	49
4	Hønefoss	24	+24	49
5	Grorud	24	+20	46
6	Stjørdals-Blink	24	+1	36
7	Tromsdalen Uil	24	+1	35
8	Lørenskog	24	−5	34
9	Junkeren	24	−8	31
10	Rana	24	−5	30
11	Skeid	24	−15	23
12	Follo	24	−21	17
13	Ull/Kisa	24	−48	13
14	Trygg/Lade	24	−30	10