Vidar v Lysekloster prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Vidar 0–2 Lysekloster LYSEKLOSTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lysekloster win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.580

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lysekloster are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vidar 34%, draw 22%, Lysekloster 44%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Vidar v LyseklosterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vidar win34%

Draw22%

Lysekloster win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vidar

Lysekloster

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Lysekloster	24	−20	19
13	Vidar	24	−40	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lysekloster winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Lysekloster a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vidar v Lysekloster~~1.61 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~13 v 12

~~The market · Lysekloster win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lysekloster win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vidar win	34%	38%	−4
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Lysekloster win	44%	38%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Both teams to score	67%	70%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Vidar or draw	56%	62%	−6
Vidar clean sheet	16%	–	–
Lysekloster clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.3 5.9 5.5 3.4 1 5.1 9.2 8.5 5.3 2.5 2 4.1 7.3 6.7 4.2 3 2.2 3.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vidar down, Lysekloster across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,061 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.1% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vidar at home: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lysekloster away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Vidar, 1.86 for Lysekloster. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LYS 1–1 VID · LYS 2–2 VID · VID 0–0 LYS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

VIDAR

LWLLLW1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–0

LYSEKLOSTER

LLLDWD2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	24	+27	56
2	Bjarg	24	+25	50
3	Mjondalen	24	+18	50
4	Brattvåg	24	+18	48
5	Sotra	24	+24	42
6	Notodden	24	+7	35
7	Kvik Halden	24	+2	34
8	Træff	24	−7	34
9	Arendal	24	−5	30
10	Pors Grenland	24	−3	29
11	Sandviken	24	−15	25
12	Lysekloster	24	−20	19
13	Vidar	24	−40	13
14	Eik-Tønsberg	24	−31	10