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Model 1.2

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Sotra v Notodden

Sotra
5–2Full time
Notodden

2. Division - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Straume Fotballhall

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Sotra 5–2 Notodden SOTRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sotra win61%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.234
The market’s Brier score0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sotra win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sotra 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sotra v Notodden
  4. 6′Notodden score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 35–25–41
  5. 6′We said Sotra at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–1 · 35–25–41
  6. 6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sotra 0–1 Notodden
  7. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 35% now
  8. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Notodden win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sotra win 59%)
  9. 7′We said Sotra at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–25–41
  10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
  11. 21′We said Sotra at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
  12. 24′Notodden find the net on 24′. 0–2. 0–2 · 11–17–72
  13. 24′We said Sotra at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–2 · 11–17–72
  14. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Sotra 0–2 Notodden
  15. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  16. 28′A goal for Sotra on 28′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 26–27–47
  17. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sotra 1–2 Notodden
  18. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 26% now
  19. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 25–27–47
  20. 33′We said Sotra at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–28–48
  21. 33′Sotra score on 33′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 52–30–18
  22. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Sotra 2–2 Notodden
  23. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 52% now
  24. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Sotra win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Notodden win 48%)
  25. 34′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 51–30–18
  26. 35′Sotra find the net on 35′. 3–2. 3–2 · 82–14–5
  27. 35′We said Sotra at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 3–2 · 82–14–5
  28. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sotra 3–2 Notodden
  29. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
  30. 36′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 82–14–4
  31. 45′HALF-TIME Sotra 3–2 Notodden
  32. 46′SECOND HALF Sotra 3–2 Notodden
  33. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sotra · On: M. D. Skar O. · Off: A. Johansen
  34. 62′We said Sotra at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
  35. 72′A goal for Sotra on 71′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  36. 72′We said Sotra at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  37. 72′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  38. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sotra 4–2 Notodden
  39. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Sotra win: 61% at kick-off, 99% now
  40. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Notodden · On: M. Ahmed · Off: A. Ryste
  41. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Sotra
  42. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Notodden
  43. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Notodden · On: T. Nordbo · Off: A. Pettersen
  44. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sotra · On: F. Falck · Off: T. Hildal
  45. 80′We said Sotra at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  46. 84′Sotra score on 84′ to make it 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  47. 84′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  48. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sotra 5–2 Notodden
  49. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sotra · On: M. Lunde · Off: E. Larsen
  50. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sotra · On: V. S. Ekren · Off: T. Haland
  51. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Notodden · On: T. Foss-Erstad · Off: S. Larsen
  52. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Notodden · On: S. Rasberg · Off: S. Jorgensen
  53. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sotra · On: J. Jonassen · Off: L. Kilen
  54. FTFULL TIME Sotra 5–2 Notodden
  55. FTSotra 5–2 Notodden · Sotra win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sotra are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sotra 61%, draw 21%, Notodden 18%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sotra v NotoddenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sotra win61%
Draw21%
Notodden win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueStraume Fotballhall

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sotra

Notodden

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Sotra24+2442
6Notodden24+735

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sotra winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
61% The market58%
Us61%
Market58%

We make Sotra a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sotra v Notodden1.97 – 0.96
Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 42 v 355 v 6
The market · Sotra win58% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:50
Our probability · Sotra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sotra win61%58%+3
Draw21%23%−2
Notodden win18%20%−2
Over 2.5 goals56%61%−5
Both teams to score53%58%−5
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals34%40%−6
Sotra or draw82%80%+2
Sotra clean sheet39%––
Notodden clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.6%
0123450 5.6 5.2 2.5 1 10.6 10.0 4.8 2 10.2 9.7 4.7 3 6.7 6.3 3.1 4 3.4 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sotra down, Notodden across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsNOT 1–0 SOT · NOT 1–1 SOT · SOT 1–3 NOT · NOT 0–0 SOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

SOTRA

WLWLWL3–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 3–4

NOTODDEN

DWLLLL1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 3–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1jerv24+2756
2Bjarg24+2550
3Mjondalen24+1850
4Brattvåg24+1848
5Sotra24+2442
6Notodden24+735
7Kvik Halden24+234
8Træff24−734
9Arendal24−530
10Pors Grenland24−329
11Sandviken24−1525
12Lysekloster24−2019
13Vidar24−4013
14Eik-Tønsberg24−3110

The competition's standings before kick-off.