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Sotra v Kvik Halden

Sotra

3–0Full time

Kvik Halden

2. Division - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Straume Fotballhall

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden SOTRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sotra win~~60%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.233

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sotra win at 60%.
1′KICK-OFF Sotra v Kvik Halden
3′Little has changed for our model: Sotra 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Sotra
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Sotra 1–0 Kvik Halden
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sotra 2–0 Kvik Halden
23′F. Falck scores for Sotra on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Sotra win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Sotra
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden
43′29′ and it is 3–0: I. Hjorteseth on the scoresheet for Sotra. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden
47′We said Sotra at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–0–0
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sotra · On: M. D. Skar O. · Off: A. Johansen
47′SECOND HALF Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kvik Halden · On: M. Grimstad · Off: F. Steinsnes-Asbo
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sotra · On: M. D. Skar O. · Off: A. Johansen
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sotra · On: M. D. Skar O. · Off: A. Johansen
69′We said Sotra at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Sotra win: 60% at kick-off, 100% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sotra · On: M. Bildoy · Off: M. Aaserud
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sotra · On: V. S. Ekren · Off: T. Hildal
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kvik Halden · On: K. Lorentzen · Off: M. Moberg
87′🟨 YELLOW · 2' A. Johansen · Sotra
87′⚽ GOAL · 4' Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden · T. Hildal
87′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden · F. Falck
87′🟨 YELLOW · 25' E. Larsen · Sotra
87′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden · I. Hjorteseth
87′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kvik Halden · On: O. Lundblad · Off: A. Puck
87′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kvik Halden · On: J. Johansen · Off: A. Samrat
87′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kvik Halden · On: M. Grimstad · Off: F. Steinsnes-Asbo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sotra · On: M. D. Skar O. · Off: A. Johansen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sotra · On: M. Bildoy · Off: M. Aaserud
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sotra · On: V. S. Ekren · Off: T. Hildal
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kvik Halden · On: K. Lorentzen · Off: M. Moberg
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sotra · On: M. Lunde · Off: D. Torum
90′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sotra 3–0 Kvik Halden
FTSotra 3–0 Kvik Halden · Sotra win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sotra win60%

Draw21%

Kvik Halden win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Straume Fotballhall

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sotra

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Grasmo

2 K. Ree

3 A. Johansen

6 S. Wik

7 F. Falck

10 L. Kilen

15 T. Hildal

17 M. Aaserud

19 I. Hjorteseth

20 D. Torum

24 E. Larsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · M. D. Skar O.

11 · T. Haland

16 · R. H. Sulen

18 · J. Jonassen

22 · M. Bildoy

23 · M. Lunde

26 · L. Lange

27 · V. S. Ekren

Kvik Halden

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Bonogard

4 S. Gindeberg

5 F. Steinsnes-Asbo

8 M. Moberg

11 A. Mjekiqi

14 U. Seferi

15 A. Samrat

17 D. Mehmeti

19 A. Puck

41 N. Solberg

80 F. Kristensen

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · M. Grimstad

6 · O. V. Skjonberg-Nymo

9 · O. Lundblad

18 · J. Johansen

23 · M. Engebretsen

47 · K. Lorentzen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sotra

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Grasmo

2 K. Ree

3 A. Johansen

6 S. Wik

7 F. Falck

10 L. Kilen

15 T. Hildal

17 M. Aaserud

19 I. Hjorteseth

20 D. Torum

24 E. Larsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · M. D. Skar O.

11 · T. Haland

16 · R. H. Sulen

18 · J. Jonassen

22 · M. Bildoy

23 · M. Lunde

26 · L. Lange

27 · V. S. Ekren

Kvik Halden

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Bonogard

4 S. Gindeberg

5 F. Steinsnes-Asbo

8 M. Moberg

11 A. Mjekiqi

14 U. Seferi

15 A. Samrat

17 D. Mehmeti

19 A. Puck

41 N. Solberg

80 F. Kristensen

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · M. Grimstad

6 · O. V. Skjonberg-Nymo

9 · O. Lundblad

18 · J. Johansen

23 · M. Engebretsen

47 · K. Lorentzen

Our number · sotra winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

60% The market61%

Us60%

~~Market~~61%

We make Sotra a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sotra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sotra win	60%	61%	−1
Draw	21%	21%	0
Kvik Halden win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	43%	−9
Sotra or draw	82%	82%	0
Sotra clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kvik Halden clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.2%

0123450 5.5 5.1 2.6 1 10.2 10.0 4.9 2 10.0 9.6 4.8 3 6.6 6.4 3.1 4 3.3 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sotra down, Kvik Halden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,047 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sotra at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kvik Halden away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Sotra, 0.99 for Kvik Halden. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KVI 2–1 SOT · SOT 3–0 KVI · KVI 0–0 SOT · SOT 0–3 KVI

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1

SOTRA

WWWLWL3–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–3

KVIK HALDEN

DLLLWL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	22	+26	52
2	Brattvåg	22	+19	45
3	Bjarg	22	+19	44
4	Mjondalen	22	+15	44
5	Sotra	22	+22	39
6	Notodden	22	+11	35
7	Kvik Halden	22	+7	34
8	Træff	22	−8	30
9	Pors Grenland	22	−3	26
10	Arendal	22	−8	26
11	Sandviken	22	−12	25
12	Lysekloster	22	−22	15
13	Eik-Tønsberg	22	−26	10
14	Vidar	22	−40	10