Sandviken v Mjondalen prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Sandviken 1–3 Mjondalen MJONDALEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mjondalen win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mjondalen win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mjondalen was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 32–23–46
1′KICK-OFF Sandviken v Mjondalen
2′Sandviken find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–21–25
2′We said Mjondalen at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 54–21–25
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Sandviken 1–0 Mjondalen
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Sandviken win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Mjondalen win 25%)
5′We said Mjondalen at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 55–21–24
6′A goal for Mjondalen on 5′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–23–45
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sandviken 1–1 Mjondalen
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Mjondalen win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sandviken win 31%)
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Sandviken
44′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 28–34–38
45′HALF-TIME Sandviken 1–1 Mjondalen
46′SECOND HALF Sandviken 1–1 Mjondalen
47′Mjondalen score on 46′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–19–72
47′We published Mjondalen at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–2 · 8–19–72
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sandviken 1–2 Mjondalen
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' Mjondalen
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
49′Mjondalen score on 49′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–19–73
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sandviken 1–2 Mjondalen
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Sandviken
57′We published Mjondalen at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mjondalen · On: O. Rotihaug · Off: J. Solberg
69′We published Mjondalen at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sandviken · On: O. Hodne · Off: B. Mvuka
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sandviken · On: M. Tislevoll · Off: H. Flagtvedt
75′Mjondalen find the net on 75′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sandviken 1–3 Mjondalen
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Mjondalen win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
76′We published Mjondalen at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Mjondalen · On: K. Steinset · Off: M. Bringaker
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sandviken · On: S. Tune · Off: S. Huesa
84′We published Mjondalen at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sandviken · On: M. Rotvold-Leenaars · Off: J. Aasen
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Mjondalen
FTFULL TIME Sandviken 1–3 Mjondalen
FTSandviken 1–3 Mjondalen · Mjondalen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mjondalen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandviken 32%, draw 22%, Mjondalen 46%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sandviken v MjondalenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sandviken win32%

Draw22%

Mjondalen win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Line-ups

Sandviken

Mjondalen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandviken

Mjondalen

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mjondalen	23	+16	47
11	Sandviken	23	−13	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sandviken

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Solberg

2 H. Flagtvedt

4 N. Marthinussen

6 L. Kamanzi

9 V. Hoynes

11 B. Engen

14 A. Njos

15 J. Aasen

22 S. Huesa

27 T. Lotsberg

67 B. Mvuka

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · M. Bergstrom

5 · M. Tislevoll

8 · O. Hodne

10 · S. Tune

16 · M. Rotvold-Leenaars

21 · C. Thorsen

34 · J. Bjorge

36 · V. Almeland Stub

41 · A. Abdulle

Mjondalen

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Klausen

3 E. Kristiansen

4 I. Vik

5 B. Sundo

6 T. Bjornebye

7 O. Midtgard

8 S. Marthinussen

9 M. Bringaker

11 J. Bruusgaard

14 T. Flem

17 J. Solberg

Coach · Kevin Nicol

Substitutes

15 · K. Steinset

19 · O. Rotihaug

20 · E. Pajic

21 · C. Breivik

25 · J. Reiersen

27 · K. Kekeli

29 · G. Sesay

34 · L. Ween

92 · M. Ottesen

Our number · mjondalen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Mjondalen a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sandviken v Mjondalen~~1.49 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 47~~11 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandviken win	32%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Mjondalen win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Sandviken or draw	54%	–	–
Sandviken clean sheet	16%	–	–
Mjondalen clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 6.7 6.1 3.7 1 5.5 9.7 8.8 5.4 2.5 2 4.0 7.2 6.5 4.0 3 2.0 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandviken down, Mjondalen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,054 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sandviken at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mjondalen away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Sandviken, 1.84 for Mjondalen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MJO 4–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

SANDVIKEN

WLLWWL2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

MJONDALEN

LWWWWW0–3 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	23	+26	53
2	Brattvåg	23	+21	48
3	Bjarg	23	+22	47
4	Mjondalen	23	+16	47
5	Sotra	23	+25	42
6	Notodden	23	+8	35
7	Kvik Halden	23	+4	34
8	Træff	23	−7	33
9	Arendal	23	−8	27
10	Pors Grenland	23	−4	26
11	Sandviken	23	−13	25
12	Lysekloster	23	−20	18
13	Eik-Tønsberg	23	−28	10
14	Vidar	23	−42	10