Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 2. Division - Group 1 › Notodden v Pors Grenland

Back
Norway flag

Notodden v Pors Grenland

Notodden
3–4Full time
Pors Grenland

2. Division - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Idrettsparken Notodden

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Notodden 3–4 Pors Grenland NOTODDEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Notodden win49%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.848
The market’s Brier score0.889

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 45 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Notodden win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Notodden 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Notodden v Pors Grenland
  4. 11′Pors Grenland score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–24–53
  5. 11′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–24–53
  6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Notodden 0–1 Pors Grenland
  7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
  8. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Notodden win 23%)
  9. 18′Pors Grenland find the net on 18′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–79
  10. 18′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–79
  11. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Notodden 0–2 Pors Grenland
  12. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
  13. 19′PENALTY MISSED · 19' Pors Grenland
  14. 19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Pors Grenland
  15. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
  16. 22′Pors Grenland find the net on 22′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
  17. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Notodden 0–2 Pors Grenland
  18. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
  19. 28′A goal for Notodden on 27′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 18–25–57
  20. 28′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–25–57
  21. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Notodden 1–2 Pors Grenland
  22. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
  23. 29′T. Nordbo scores for Notodden on 28′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 18–25–57
  24. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 17–25–57
  25. 39′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
  26. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Pors Grenland
  27. 42′Notodden score on 41′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 39–38–23
  28. 42′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 39–38–23
  29. 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Notodden 2–2 Pors Grenland
  30. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  31. 45′HALF-TIME Notodden 2–2 Pors Grenland
  32. 46′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 37–40–23
  33. 46′SECOND HALF Notodden 2–2 Pors Grenland
  34. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pors Grenland win 22%)
  35. 54′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–45–21
  36. 55′Pors Grenland find the net on 55′. 2–3. 2–3 · 9–25–66
  37. 55′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 9–25–66
  38. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Notodden 2–3 Pors Grenland
  39. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  40. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 25%)
  41. 58′A goal for Notodden on 57′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 32–48–20
  42. 58′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 32–48–20
  43. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Notodden 3–3 Pors Grenland
  44. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 32% now
  45. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Pors Grenland win 20%)
  46. 63′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 3–3 · 29–53–18
  47. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Notodden
  48. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pors Grenland · On: M. Mauset · Off: T. Meen
  49. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Notodden · On: M. Wenneberg · Off: A. Pettersen
  50. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Notodden · On: N. Bertelsen · Off: T. Nordbo
  51. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Pors Grenland
  52. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  53. 77′Pors Grenland score on 76′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 2–16–82
  54. 77′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–4 · 2–16–82
  55. 77′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 2–16–82
  56. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Notodden 3–4 Pors Grenland
  57. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
  58. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
  59. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Pors Grenland · On: A. Bjornhaug Remy · Off: S. Mladenovic
  60. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Pors Grenland · On: R. Pllana · Off: J. Kekarainen
  61. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pors Grenland · On: M. Lewis · Off: T. Garstad
  62. 84′Notodden find the net on 84′. 4–4. 4–4 · 9–85–6
  63. 84′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 9–85–6
  64. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Notodden 4–4 Pors Grenland
  65. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Pors Grenland win 6%)
  66. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Notodden · On: M. Ahmed · Off: J. Hammerli
  67. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Notodden
  68. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
  69. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 68' M. Lewis · Pors Grenland
  70. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pors Grenland · On: J. Lindvig · Off: A. Bakeng-Rogne
  71. FTFULL TIME Notodden 3–4 Pors Grenland
  72. FTNotodden 3–4 Pors Grenland · Notodden win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Notodden are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Notodden 49%, draw 25%, Pors Grenland 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Notodden v Pors GrenlandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Notodden win49%
Draw25%
Pors Grenland win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueIdrettsparken Notodden

Line-ups

Notodden

Pors Grenland

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Notodden

Pors Grenland

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Notodden23+835
10Pors Grenland23−426

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Notodden

Formation not confirmed

2 J. Gunnerod

4 J. Hammerli

6 S. Larsen

7 J. Galta

8 S. Jorgensen

9 E. Leandersson

10 A. Pettersen

12 J. Bergesen

20 B. Bjerkan

22 T. Nordbo

23 A. Ryste

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · H. H. Osen

5 · M. Ahmed

14 · T. Foss-Erstad

15 · S. Rasberg

16 · N. Bertelsen

27 · M. Wenneberg

31 · S. Straand

Pors Grenland

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Hagen

3 S. Ostby

5 T. Garstad

7 T. Meen

8 A. Bakeng-Rogne

9 O. Johnsen

10 S. Mladenovic

16 B. Evensen

23 A. Giske

25 E. Gayi

31 J. Kekarainen

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · M. Bruu

11 · E. B. Holst

17 · M. Mauset

20 · M. Kiste-Johnsen

24 · S. E. Vassend

26 · M. Lewis

27 · J. Lindvig

30 · R. Pllana

55 · A. Bjornhaug Remy

Our number · notodden winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market51%
Us49%
Market51%

We make Notodden a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Notodden v Pors Grenland1.56 – 1.06
Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 6 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 35 v 266 v 10
The market · Notodden win51% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 12:21
Our probability · Notodden win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Notodden win49%51%−2
Draw25%24%+1
Pors Grenland win26%25%+1
Over 2.5 goals49%62%−13
Both teams to score51%63%−12
Over 1.5 goals73%82%−9
Over 3.5 goals27%42%−15
Notodden or draw74%75%−1
Notodden clean sheet35%––
Pors Grenland clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 7.5 7.8 4.1 1 11.3 11.8 6.3 2.3 2 8.8 9.1 4.9 3 4.6 4.8 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Notodden down, Pors Grenland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsPOR 1–2 NOT · POR 2–2 NOT · NOT 2–1 POR · POR 0–2 NOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

NOTODDEN

WDWLLL3–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–5

PORS GRENLAND

LLWLWL2–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1jerv23+2653
2Brattvåg23+2148
3Bjarg23+2247
4Mjondalen23+1647
5Sotra23+2542
6Notodden23+835
7Kvik Halden23+434
8Træff23−733
9Arendal23−827
10Pors Grenland23−426
11Sandviken23−1325
12Lysekloster23−2018
13Eik-Tønsberg23−2810
14Vidar23−4210

The competition's standings before kick-off.