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Notodden v Pors Grenland
Notodden
Pors Grenland2. Division - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Idrettsparken Notodden
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Notodden win at 49%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Notodden 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Notodden v Pors Grenland
- 11′Pors Grenland score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–24–53
- 11′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–24–53
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Notodden 0–1 Pors Grenland
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
- 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Notodden win 23%)
- 18′Pors Grenland find the net on 18′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–79
- 18′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–79
- 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Notodden 0–2 Pors Grenland
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
- 19′PENALTY MISSED · 19' Pors Grenland
- 19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Pors Grenland
- 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
- 22′Pors Grenland find the net on 22′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Notodden 0–2 Pors Grenland
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
- 28′A goal for Notodden on 27′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 18–25–57
- 28′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–25–57
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Notodden 1–2 Pors Grenland
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
- 29′T. Nordbo scores for Notodden on 28′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 18–25–57
- 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 17–25–57
- 39′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
- 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Pors Grenland
- 42′Notodden score on 41′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 39–38–23
- 42′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 39–38–23
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Notodden 2–2 Pors Grenland
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Notodden 2–2 Pors Grenland
- 46′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 37–40–23
- 46′SECOND HALF Notodden 2–2 Pors Grenland
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pors Grenland win 22%)
- 54′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–45–21
- 55′Pors Grenland find the net on 55′. 2–3. 2–3 · 9–25–66
- 55′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 9–25–66
- 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Notodden 2–3 Pors Grenland
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 25%)
- 58′A goal for Notodden on 57′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 32–48–20
- 58′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 32–48–20
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Notodden 3–3 Pors Grenland
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 32% now
- 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Pors Grenland win 20%)
- 63′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 3–3 · 29–53–18
- 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Notodden
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pors Grenland · On: M. Mauset · Off: T. Meen
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Notodden · On: M. Wenneberg · Off: A. Pettersen
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Notodden · On: N. Bertelsen · Off: T. Nordbo
- 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Pors Grenland
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 77′Pors Grenland score on 76′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 2–16–82
- 77′We said Notodden at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–4 · 2–16–82
- 77′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 2–16–82
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Notodden 3–4 Pors Grenland
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Notodden win: 49% at kick-off, 2% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Pors Grenland · On: A. Bjornhaug Remy · Off: S. Mladenovic
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Pors Grenland · On: R. Pllana · Off: J. Kekarainen
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pors Grenland · On: M. Lewis · Off: T. Garstad
- 84′Notodden find the net on 84′. 4–4. 4–4 · 9–85–6
- 84′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 9–85–6
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Notodden 4–4 Pors Grenland
- 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Pors Grenland win 6%)
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Notodden · On: M. Ahmed · Off: J. Hammerli
- 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Notodden
- 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Pors Grenland win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 68' M. Lewis · Pors Grenland
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pors Grenland · On: J. Lindvig · Off: A. Bakeng-Rogne
- FTFULL TIME Notodden 3–4 Pors Grenland
- FTNotodden 3–4 Pors Grenland · Notodden win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassNotodden are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Notodden 49%, draw 25%, Pors Grenland 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Notodden win49%
Pors Grenland win26%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 24
VenueIdrettsparken Notodden
Match timeline
All events
NotoddenMIN
Pors GrenlandEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Notodden
Pors Grenland
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Notodden
Pors Grenland
Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Notodden
Formation not confirmed
2 J. Gunnerod
4 J. Hammerli
6 S. Larsen
7 J. Galta
8 S. Jorgensen
9 E. Leandersson
10 A. Pettersen
12 J. Bergesen
20 B. Bjerkan
22 T. Nordbo
23 A. Ryste
Coach · –
Substitutes
3 · H. H. Osen
5 · M. Ahmed
14 · T. Foss-Erstad
15 · S. Rasberg
16 · N. Bertelsen
27 · M. Wenneberg
31 · S. Straand
Pors Grenland
Formation not confirmed
1 P. Hagen
3 S. Ostby
5 T. Garstad
7 T. Meen
8 A. Bakeng-Rogne
9 O. Johnsen
10 S. Mladenovic
16 B. Evensen
23 A. Giske
25 E. Gayi
31 J. Kekarainen
Coach · –
Substitutes
6 · M. Bruu
11 · E. B. Holst
17 · M. Mauset
20 · M. Kiste-Johnsen
24 · S. E. Vassend
26 · M. Lewis
27 · J. Lindvig
30 · R. Pllana
55 · A. Bjornhaug Remy
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Notodden
Formation not confirmed
2 J. Gunnerod
4 J. Hammerli
6 S. Larsen
7 J. Galta
8 S. Jorgensen
9 E. Leandersson
10 A. Pettersen
12 J. Bergesen
20 B. Bjerkan
22 T. Nordbo
23 A. Ryste
Coach · –
Substitutes
3 · H. H. Osen
5 · M. Ahmed
14 · T. Foss-Erstad
15 · S. Rasberg
16 · N. Bertelsen
27 · M. Wenneberg
31 · S. Straand
Pors Grenland
Formation not confirmed
1 P. Hagen
3 S. Ostby
5 T. Garstad
7 T. Meen
8 A. Bakeng-Rogne
9 O. Johnsen
10 S. Mladenovic
16 B. Evensen
23 A. Giske
25 E. Gayi
31 J. Kekarainen
Coach · –
Substitutes
6 · M. Bruu
11 · E. B. Holst
17 · M. Mauset
20 · M. Kiste-Johnsen
24 · S. E. Vassend
26 · M. Lewis
27 · J. Lindvig
30 · R. Pllana
55 · A. Bjornhaug Remy
We make Notodden a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notodden win | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Pors Grenland win | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 62% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 42% | −15 |
| Notodden or draw | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Notodden clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Pors Grenland clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept
NOTODDEN
PORS GRENLAND
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 23 | +26 | 53 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 23 | +21 | 48 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 23 | +22 | 47 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 23 | +16 | 47 |
| 5 | Sotra | 23 | +25 | 42 |
| 6 | Notodden | 23 | +8 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 23 | +4 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 23 | −7 | 33 |
| 9 | Arendal | 23 | −8 | 27 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 23 | −4 | 26 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 23 | −13 | 25 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 23 | −20 | 18 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 23 | −28 | 10 |
| 14 | Vidar | 23 | −42 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
jerv
Brattvåg
Bjarg
Mjondalen
Sotra
Kvik Halden
Træff
Arendal
Sandviken
Lysekloster
Eik-Tønsberg
Vidar