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Mjondalen v Pors Grenland

Mjondalen

1–0Full time

Pors Grenland

2. Division - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Consto Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Mjondalen 1–0 Pors Grenland MJONDALEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mjondalen win~~60%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.238

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.147

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mjondalen win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mjondalen was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
1′KICK-OFF Mjondalen v Pors Grenland
2′Much as we predicted: Mjondalen was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
45′HALF-TIME Mjondalen 0–0 Pors Grenland
46′SECOND HALF Mjondalen 0–0 Pors Grenland
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Mjondalen · On: G. Sesay · Off: M. Bringaker
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Mjondalen · On: J. Solberg · Off: O. Rotihaug
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Mjondalen · On: J. Solberg · Off: O. Rotihaug
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Pors Grenland · On: M. Mauset · Off: S. Mladenovic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mjondalen · On: V. Schmolker · Off: O. Midtgard
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Mjondalen 1–0 Pors Grenland
89′⚽ GOAL · 87' Mjondalen 1–0 Pors Grenland · T. Flem
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pors Grenland · On: M. Lewis · Off: T. Garstad
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pors Grenland · On: J. Lindvig · Off: A. Giske
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Mjondalen
FTFULL TIME Mjondalen 1–0 Pors Grenland
FTMjondalen 1–0 Pors Grenland · Mjondalen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mjondalen win60%

Draw21%

Pors Grenland win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Consto Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mjondalen

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Klausen

3 E. Kristiansen

4 I. Vik

5 B. Sundo

6 T. Bjornebye

7 O. Midtgard

8 S. Marthinussen

9 M. Bringaker

11 J. Bruusgaard

14 T. Flem

19 O. Rotihaug

Coach · Kevin Nicol

Substitutes

15 · K. Steinset

17 · J. Solberg

18 · N. Arsbog

21 · C. Breivik

25 · J. Reiersen

27 · K. Kekeli

77 · V. Schmolker

92 · M. Ottesen

29 · G. Sesay

Pors Grenland

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Hagen

3 S. Ostby

5 T. Garstad

7 T. Meen

8 A. Bakeng-Rogne

9 O. Johnsen

10 S. Mladenovic

16 B. Evensen

23 A. Giske

25 E. Gayi

30 R. Pllana

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · M. Bruu

11 · E. B. Holst

15 · M. Mauset

20 · M. Kiste-Johnsen

24 · S. E. Vassend

27 · J. Lindvig

31 · J. Kekarainen

55 · A. Bjornhaug Remy

26 · M. Lewis

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mjondalen

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Klausen

3 E. Kristiansen

4 I. Vik

5 B. Sundo

6 T. Bjornebye

7 O. Midtgard

8 S. Marthinussen

9 M. Bringaker

11 J. Bruusgaard

14 T. Flem

19 O. Rotihaug

Coach · Kevin Nicol

Substitutes

15 · K. Steinset

17 · J. Solberg

18 · N. Arsbog

21 · C. Breivik

25 · J. Reiersen

27 · K. Kekeli

77 · V. Schmolker

92 · M. Ottesen

29 · G. Sesay

Pors Grenland

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Hagen

3 S. Ostby

5 T. Garstad

7 T. Meen

8 A. Bakeng-Rogne

9 O. Johnsen

10 S. Mladenovic

16 B. Evensen

23 A. Giske

25 E. Gayi

30 R. Pllana

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · M. Bruu

11 · E. B. Holst

15 · M. Mauset

20 · M. Kiste-Johnsen

24 · S. E. Vassend

27 · J. Lindvig

31 · J. Kekarainen

55 · A. Bjornhaug Remy

26 · M. Lewis

Our number · mjondalen winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

60% The market69%

Us60%

~~Market~~69%

We make Mjondalen a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mjondalen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mjondalen win	60%	69%	−9
Draw	21%	18%	+2
Pors Grenland win	19%	13%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	62%	67%	−6
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	49%	−9
Mjondalen or draw	81%	87%	−6
Mjondalen clean sheet	34%	–	–
Pors Grenland clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.4 4.5 2.5 1 8.6 9.4 5.1 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 6.3 6.7 3.7 4 3.4 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mjondalen down, Pors Grenland across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,047 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mjondalen at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pors Grenland away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Mjondalen, 1.10 for Pors Grenland. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–0 MJO

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1

MJONDALEN

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 4–0

PORS GRENLAND

LLLWLW0–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	22	+26	52
2	Brattvåg	22	+19	45
3	Bjarg	22	+19	44
4	Mjondalen	22	+15	44
5	Sotra	22	+22	39
6	Notodden	22	+11	35
7	Kvik Halden	22	+7	34
8	Træff	22	−8	30
9	Pors Grenland	22	−3	26
10	Arendal	22	−8	26
11	Sandviken	22	−12	25
12	Lysekloster	22	−22	15
13	Eik-Tønsberg	22	−26	10
14	Vidar	22	−40	10