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Mjondalen v Brattvåg

Mjondalen

1–4Full time

Brattvåg

2. Division - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Consto Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Mjondalen 1–4 Brattvåg MJONDALEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mjondalen win~~49%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mjondalen win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mjondalen 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–21–30
1′KICK-OFF Mjondalen v Brattvåg
5′Brattvåg find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–21–51
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Mjondalen 0–1 Brattvåg
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 28% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Brattvåg win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Mjondalen win 49%)
6′We said Mjondalen at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–21–51
20′We said Mjondalen at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–22–54
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 21–23–55
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Brattvåg
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' I. Vik · Mjondalen
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Mjondalen 1–1 Brattvåg
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 43% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Mjondalen win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Brattvåg win 57%)
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Mjondalen
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Brattvåg win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Mjondalen win 43%)
37′We said Mjondalen at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
39′A goal for Mjondalen on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 42–30–28
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Mjondalen 1–1 Brattvåg
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 42% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Mjondalen win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Brattvåg win 58%)
40′40′: R. Lovseth on the scoresheet for Brattvåg, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 18–24–58
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Mjondalen 1–2 Brattvåg · R. Lovseth
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Brattvåg win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Mjondalen win 42%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Mjondalen
45′HALF-TIME Mjondalen 1–2 Brattvåg
46′SECOND HALF Mjondalen 1–2 Brattvåg
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mjondalen · On: G. Sesay · Off: K. Kekeli
50′We said Mjondalen at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–61
63′We said Mjondalen at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Mjondalen win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
65′Brattvåg find the net on 65′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–92
65′We said Mjondalen at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–92
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Mjondalen 1–3 Brattvåg
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–6–92
74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Mjondalen · On: C. Breivik · Off: E. Kristiansen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Mjondalen · On: V. Schmolker · Off: M. Bringaker
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brattvåg · On: O. Henriksrud · Off: S. Solli
75′A goal for Brattvåg on 75′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Mjondalen 1–4 Brattvåg
76′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mjondalen · On: O. Rotihaug · Off: J. Solberg
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brattvåg · On: A. Myklebust · Off: J. Kvarven
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brattvåg · On: J. Norvik · Off: L. Neto
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Brattvåg · On: S. Tattum · Off: R. Lovseth
FTFULL TIME Mjondalen 1–4 Brattvåg
FTMjondalen 1–4 Brattvåg · Mjondalen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mjondalen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mjondalen 49%, draw 21%, Brattvåg 30%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Mjondalen v BrattvågBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mjondalen win49%

Draw21%

Brattvåg win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueConsto Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mjondalen

Brattvåg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mjondalen	24	+18	50
4	Brattvåg	24	+18	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mjondalen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

49% The market48%

Us49%

~~Market~~48%

We make Mjondalen a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mjondalen v Brattvåg~~2.10 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 48~~3 v 4

~~The market · Mjondalen win~~48% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mjondalen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mjondalen win	49%	48%	+1
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Brattvåg win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	50%	47%	+3
Mjondalen or draw	70%	72%	−2
Mjondalen clean sheet	21%	–	–
Brattvåg clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 4.1 3.2 1 5.3 8.3 6.5 3.5 2 5.5 8.5 6.7 3.6 3 3.8 5.9 4.7 2.5 4 2.0 3.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mjondalen down, Brattvåg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,061 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.1% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mjondalen at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Brattvåg away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Mjondalen, 1.60 for Brattvåg. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BRA 3–5 MJO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

MJONDALEN

WWWWWW3–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

BRATTVÅG

LWWWWL1–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	24	+27	56
2	Bjarg	24	+25	50
3	Mjondalen	24	+18	50
4	Brattvåg	24	+18	48
5	Sotra	24	+24	42
6	Notodden	24	+7	35
7	Kvik Halden	24	+2	34
8	Træff	24	−7	34
9	Arendal	24	−5	30
10	Pors Grenland	24	−3	29
11	Sandviken	24	−15	25
12	Lysekloster	24	−20	19
13	Vidar	24	−40	13
14	Eik-Tønsberg	24	−31	10