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Model 1.2

Home › Football › 2. Division - Group 1 › Lysekloster v Træff

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Lysekloster v Træff

Lysekloster
3–3Full time
Træff

2. Division - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Lysekloster Family Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Lysekloster 3–3 Træff LYSEKLOSTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lysekloster win50%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.945
The market’s Brier score0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lysekloster win at 50%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Lysekloster v Træff
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Lysekloster was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
  4. 26′GOAL DISALLOWED · 26' Lysekloster
  5. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Lysekloster win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
  6. 27′A goal for Lysekloster on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
  7. 27′We published Lysekloster at 50%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
  8. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Lysekloster 1–0 Træff
  9. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Lysekloster win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 73–17–10
  11. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Lysekloster
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Lysekloster 1–0 Træff
  13. 46′We published Lysekloster at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Lysekloster 1–0 Træff
  15. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Lysekloster
  16. 51′We published Lysekloster at 50%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  17. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lysekloster 2–0 Træff
  18. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Lysekloster win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
  19. 52′51′: V. Stavo on the scoresheet for Lysekloster, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  20. 57′We published Lysekloster at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  21. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Træff
  22. 65′Lysekloster find the net on 65′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Lysekloster 3–0 Træff
  24. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Lysekloster win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  25. 66′We published Lysekloster at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 77′A goal for Træff on 77′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  27. 77′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Lysekloster 3–1 Træff
  29. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lysekloster
  30. 82′PENALTY MISSED · 81' Træff
  31. 86′Træff score on 85′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 93–7–0
  32. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Lysekloster 3–2 Træff
  33. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Lysekloster win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
  34. 87′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  35. 91′Træff find the net on 90′. 3–3. 3–3 · 5–91–4
  36. 91′We said Lysekloster at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 3–3 · 5–91–4
  37. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Lysekloster 3–3 Træff
  38. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Lysekloster win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
  39. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Lysekloster win 5%)
  40. 92′We said Lysekloster at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–93–3
  41. 92′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 4–93–3
  42. FTFULL TIME Lysekloster 3–3 Træff
  43. FTLysekloster 3–3 Træff · Lysekloster win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lysekloster are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lysekloster 50%, draw 22%, Træff 28%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Lysekloster v TræffBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lysekloster win50%
Draw22%
Træff win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueLysekloster Family Arena

Line-ups

Lysekloster

Træff

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lysekloster

Træff

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Træff23−733
12Lysekloster23−2018

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lysekloster

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Saetren

2 J. Konstali

5 J. Valland

9 N. F. Ozyilmaz

18 J. Nordvold Lunde

6 T. V. Ovreberg

8 M. Aroy

14 O. Olsen

17 V. Nakken

23 L. Dahle Fagerlie

33 V. Stavo

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Jolle

11 · K. Liset

19 · K. H. Bonabandi

24 · O. Ihlen

Træff

Formation not confirmed

2 S. Heggstad

5 I. Flones

6 V. Forren

10 R. Toven

12 P. Jensen

13 A. Bugaj

14 F. Kristoffersen

18 W. Phudithip

19 L. Juberg-Hovland

25 H. Opsahl

27 J. Boe

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · O. E. Knudson J.

7 · K. Tosse

8 · S. Gussias

9 · D. Okanovic

16 · E. Silseth

Our number · lysekloster winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off
50% The market36%
Us50%
Market36%

We make Lysekloster a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lysekloster v Træff1.98 – 1.42
Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 6 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 18 v 3312 v 8
The market · Lysekloster win36% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 14:27
Our probability · Lysekloster win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lysekloster win50%36%+14
Draw22%25%−3
Træff win28%40%−12
Over 2.5 goals66%62%+4
Both teams to score65%64%+1
Over 1.5 goals85%83%+2
Over 3.5 goals44%42%+2
Lysekloster or draw72%60%+12
Lysekloster clean sheet25%––
Træff clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%
0123450 3.5 4.9 3.5 1 6.7 9.3 6.6 3.2 2 6.5 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 4.3 5.9 4.2 2.0 4 2.2 3.0 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lysekloster down, Træff across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsTRA 4–0 LYS · LYS 1–1 TRA · TRA 2–1 LYS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

LYSEKLOSTER

LLLLDW0–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 3–1

TRÆFF

WDLLLW3–2 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1jerv23+2653
2Mjondalen24+1850
3Brattvåg23+2148
4Bjarg23+2247
5Sotra23+2542
6Notodden24+735
7Kvik Halden24+234
8Træff23−733
9Arendal24−530
10Pors Grenland24−329
11Sandviken24−1525
12Lysekloster23−2018
13Vidar24−4013
14Eik-Tønsberg24−3110

The competition's standings before kick-off.