jerv v Sotra prediction · 2. Division - Group 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

jerv 4–3 Sotra JERV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said jerv win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.336

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said jerv win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: jerv was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF jerv v Sotra
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Sotra
25′jerv find the net on 25′. 0–0 · 41–29–30
26′We published jerv at 45%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–11
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' jerv 1–0 Sotra
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
29′We published jerv at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' jerv 2–0 Sotra
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 90% now
30′jerv find the net on 30′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
31′jerv ahead on 29′ through M. Kvinge. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–1
55′jerv find the net on 54′. 2–0 · 94–5–1
56′We published jerv at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' jerv 3–0 Sotra
63′Sotra score on 62′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
63′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–3–1
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' jerv 3–1 Sotra
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sotra · On: F. Falck · Off: T. Hildal
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' jerv · On: P. Simba · Off: P. Syvertsen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' jerv · On: E. Kolve · Off: J. Furaha
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' jerv
79′We published jerv at 45%. Our model now makes it 88%. 3–2 · 88–11–1
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 88–11–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' jerv 3–2 Sotra
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 88% now
80′Sotra find the net on 79′. 3–2. 3–2 · 89–11–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' jerv · On: M. Syvertsen · Off: M. Kvinge
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' jerv · On: J. Sanchez · Off: K. Badjie
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
91′A goal for Sotra on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 4–92–3
91′We said jerv at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–92–3
91′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 4–92–3
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' jerv 3–3 Sotra
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 4% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was jerv win 4%)
92′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sotra · On: M. Lunde · Off: T. Haland
94′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 99–1–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' jerv
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' jerv 4–3 Sotra
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' jerv win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' jerv win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
95′jerv score on 90′ to make it 4–3. 4–3 · 99–1–0
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' jerv
FTFULL TIME jerv 4–3 Sotra
FTjerv 4–3 Sotra · jerv win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

jerv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: jerv 45%, draw 24%, Sotra 31%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on jerv v SotraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

jerv win45%

Draw24%

Sotra win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

Line-ups

jerv

Sotra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

jerv

Sotra

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

jerv

Formation not confirmed

3 D. Hultqvist

7 P. Syvertsen

10 M. Kvinge

11 K. Badjie

15 M. Almen

16 D. Gadegaard

17 S. Nordbo

20 C. Svendby

23 T. Agelin

40 S. Osestad

97 J. Furaha

Coach · Arne Sandsto

Substitutes

4 · J. Sanchez

5 · F. Lillehammer

9 · P. Simba

14 · J. Stalesen

22 · E. Kolve

26 · P. Isaksen

36 · M. Seim-Monsen

42 · M. Syvertsen

99 · A. Skiftenes

Sotra

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Grasmo

2 K. Ree

3 A. Johansen

6 S. Wik

10 L. Kilen

11 T. Haland

15 T. Hildal

17 M. Aaserud

19 I. Hjorteseth

20 D. Torum

24 E. Larsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · M. D. Skar O.

7 · F. Falck

16 · R. H. Sulen

18 · J. Jonassen

22 · M. Bildoy

23 · M. Lunde

27 · V. S. Ekren

Our number · jerv winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make jerv a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · jerv v Sotra~~1.63 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 53 v 42~~1 v 5

~~The market · jerv win~~53% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jerv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
jerv win	45%	53%	−8
Draw	24%	24%	0
Sotra win	31%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
jerv or draw	69%	77%	−8
jerv clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sotra clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 7.0 4.6 2.0 1 8.7 11.1 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.8 4.9 3.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+jerv down, Sotra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

jerv at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sotra away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for jerv, 1.31 for Sotra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SOT 1–3 JER · JER 2–0 SOT · SOT 2–1 JER · JER 1–1 SOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

JERV

WWWWDD3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–2

SOTRA

WWLWLW3–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	23	+26	53
2	Mjondalen	24	+18	50
3	Brattvåg	23	+21	48
4	Bjarg	23	+22	47
5	Sotra	23	+25	42
6	Notodden	24	+7	35
7	Kvik Halden	24	+2	34
8	Træff	23	−7	33
9	Arendal	24	−5	30
10	Pors Grenland	24	−3	29
11	Sandviken	24	−15	25
12	Lysekloster	23	−20	18
13	Vidar	24	−40	13
14	Eik-Tønsberg	24	−31	10