Eik-Tønsberg v Lysekloster prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Eik-Tønsberg 1–3 Lysekloster EIK-TØNSBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eik-Tønsberg win~~45%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.848

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eik-Tønsberg win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eik-Tønsberg was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Eik-Tønsberg v Lysekloster
9′Much as we predicted: Eik-Tønsberg was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Eik-Tønsberg 0–1 Lysekloster
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Lysekloster
45′HALF-TIME Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Lysekloster
46′SECOND HALF Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Lysekloster
47′⚽ GOAL · 28' Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Lysekloster · J. Konstali
47′⚽ GOAL · 40' Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Lysekloster · M. Aroy
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eik-Tønsberg · On: M. Solli · Off: M. Srour
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Lysekloster
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Eik-Tønsberg
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Eik-Tønsberg · On: M. Volden · Off: C. Flood
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lysekloster · On: K. Liset · Off: L. Dahle Fagerlie
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Eik-Tønsberg
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Eik-Tønsberg 1–2 Lysekloster
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Eik-Tønsberg · On: E. Gunnarsson Lavlund · Off: E. Muhle
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Eik-Tønsberg · On: K. Carlstedt · Off: W. Schmidt Godo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lysekloster · On: E. Jolle · Off: J. Konstali
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lysekloster · On: O. Ihlen · Off: V. Stavo
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Eik-Tønsberg
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Eik-Tønsberg
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Eik-Tønsberg 1–3 Lysekloster
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Eik-Tønsberg 1–3 Lysekloster · K. H. Bonabandi
FTFULL TIME Eik-Tønsberg 1–3 Lysekloster
FTEik-Tønsberg 1–3 Lysekloster · Eik-Tønsberg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Eik-Tønsberg win45%

Draw24%

Lysekloster win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Line-ups

Eik-Tønsberg

Lysekloster

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Eik-Tønsberg

Lysekloster

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Lysekloster	22	−22	15
13	Eik-Tønsberg	22	−26	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Eik-Tønsberg

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Moe

3 V. S. Roberg

4 J. Lundhagebakken

5 T. Brendsrod

8 T. Nygaard

9 B. Stokke

10 B. Andersen

17 W. Schmidt Godo

18 E. Muhle

20 M. Srour

21 C. Flood

Coach · Ruben Tollefsen

Substitutes

2 · N. Sverrisson

6 · H. Danielsen

11 · A. Nygaard

14 · E. Roberg

23 · E. Gunnarsson Lavlund

25 · K. Carlstedt

29 · M. Volden

35 · D. Rachlew-Ronningen

77 · M. Solli

Lysekloster

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Saetren

2 J. Konstali

5 J. Valland

16 T. V. Ovreberg

8 M. Aroy

9 N. F. Ozyilmaz

14 O. Olsen

17 V. Nakken

23 L. Dahle Fagerlie

30 J. Vagen

33 V. Stavo

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Jolle

26 · O. Ihlen

11 · K. Liset

18 · J. Nordvold Lunde

19 · K. H. Bonabandi

Our number · eik-tønsberg winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

45% The market50%

Us45%

~~Market~~50%

We make Eik-Tønsberg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · eik-tønsberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eik-Tønsberg win	45%	50%	−5
Draw	24%	24%	0
Lysekloster win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	65%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	44%	−7
Eik-Tønsberg or draw	69%	74%	−5
Eik-Tønsberg clean sheet	25%	–	–
Lysekloster clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 6.3 4.4 2.1 1 7.7 10.6 7.3 3.4 2 6.6 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 3.8 5.1 3.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eik-Tønsberg down, Lysekloster across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eik-Tønsberg at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lysekloster away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Eik-Tønsberg, 1.39 for Lysekloster. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LYS 3–1 EIK · LYS 1–2 EIK · EIK 0–0 LYS · EIK 2–1 LYS

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1

EIK-TØNSBERG

LLWLLW1–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1

LYSEKLOSTER

LLLLLD1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	23	+26	53
2	Mjondalen	23	+16	47
3	Brattvåg	22	+19	45
4	Bjarg	22	+19	44
5	Sotra	23	+25	42
6	Notodden	22	+11	35
7	Kvik Halden	23	+4	34
8	Træff	22	−8	30
9	Arendal	23	−8	27
10	Pors Grenland	23	−4	26
11	Sandviken	22	−12	25
12	Lysekloster	22	−22	15
13	Eik-Tønsberg	22	−26	10
14	Vidar	22	−40	10