Brattvåg v Bjarg prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Brattvåg 1–4 Bjarg BRATTVÅG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brattvåg win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brattvåg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brattvåg 49%, draw 20%, Bjarg 31%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Brattvåg v BjargBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brattvåg win49%

Draw20%

Bjarg win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

Line-ups

Brattvåg

Bjarg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brattvåg

Bjarg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Brattvåg	23	+21	48
4	Bjarg	23	+22	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brattvåg

Formation not confirmed

2 I. Hagen

3 J. Valland

4 K. Bata

7 A. Tveiten

8 J. Kvarven

9 R. Lovseth

12 J. Sundling

16 R. Myers

20 L. Neto

21 D. Bubahe

23 S. Solli

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · O. Hjelme Connor

5 · A. Ugelvik

6 · F. Vinje

10 · E. Dahle

11 · O. Henriksrud

15 · A. Myklebust

17 · J. Norvik

18 · J. Havig

19 · S. Tattum

Bjarg

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Mossestad

4 M. Ahmer

6 V. Halset

7 S. Hopsdal

8 J. Jorgensen

9 M. Eiane

13 S. Hopsdal

14 S. Aanonsen

18 A. Ahlander

22 M. Christophersen

29 K. Stephensen

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · H. Mildestveit

10 · D. Tufta

11 · E. Brattreit

12 · E. Johansen

15 · A. Hanssen

16 · E. Fromreide Aasbo

17 · M. Ali Alzubi

19 · S. Stronstad-Loseth

Our number · brattvåg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Brattvåg a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brattvåg v Bjarg~~2.25 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 48 v 47~~3 v 4

~~The market · Brattvåg win~~42% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brattvåg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brattvåg win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Bjarg win	31%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Both teams to score	73%	70%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	86%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	56%	50%	+6
Brattvåg or draw	69%	66%	+3
Brattvåg clean sheet	18%	–	–
Bjarg clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 3.4 2.9 1 4.2 7.2 6.3 3.7 2 4.6 7.9 6.8 4.0 3 3.4 5.9 5.1 3.0 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brattvåg down, Bjarg across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brattvåg at home: 2.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bjarg away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Brattvåg, 1.76 for Bjarg. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BJA 2–6 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BRATTVÅG

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 3–1

BJARG

WWWWWW4–0 · 4–1 · 6–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	23	+26	53
2	Mjondalen	24	+18	50
3	Brattvåg	23	+21	48
4	Bjarg	23	+22	47
5	Sotra	23	+25	42
6	Notodden	24	+7	35
7	Kvik Halden	24	+2	34
8	Træff	23	−7	33
9	Arendal	24	−5	30
10	Pors Grenland	24	−3	29
11	Sandviken	24	−15	25
12	Lysekloster	23	−20	18
13	Vidar	24	−40	13
14	Eik-Tønsberg	24	−31	10