Bjarg v Notodden prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Bjarg 5–2 Notodden BJARG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bjarg win~~57%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.276

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bjarg win at 57%.
2′KICK-OFF Bjarg v Notodden
3′Little has changed for our model: Bjarg 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
4′Little has changed for our model: Bjarg 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Bjarg 1–0 Notodden
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Bjarg 2–0 Notodden
40′A goal for Notodden on 39′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–5
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Bjarg 2–1 Notodden · M. Eiane
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Bjarg 2–1 Notodden
41′A goal for Notodden on 39′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–5
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Bjarg win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Bjarg win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Bjarg 3–1 Notodden
45′HALF-TIME Bjarg 3–1 Notodden
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bjarg win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
46′SECOND HALF Bjarg 3–1 Notodden
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Bjarg win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bjarg · On: H. Mildestveit · Off: E. Brattreit
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bjarg 4–1 Notodden
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Notodden · On: S. Rasberg · Off: T. Nordbo
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Bjarg 5–1 Notodden
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Notodden
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bjarg · On: T. Steensen · Off: J. Jorgensen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bjarg · On: D. Tufta · Off: S. Hopsdal
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bjarg · On: M. Ali Alzubi · Off: M. Christophersen
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bjarg 5–2 Notodden
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Bjarg
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bjarg · On: E. Fromreide Aasbo · Off: M. Eiane
FTFULL TIME Bjarg 5–2 Notodden
FTBjarg 5–2 Notodden · Bjarg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bjarg win57%

Draw22%

Notodden win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueStavollen kunstgress

Line-ups

Bjarg

Notodden

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bjarg

Notodden

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bjarg	22	+19	44
6	Notodden	22	+11	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bjarg

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Mossestad

6 V. Halset

7 S. Hopsdal

8 J. Jorgensen

9 M. Eiane

11 E. Brattreit

13 S. Hopsdal

14 S. Aanonsen

18 A. Ahlander

22 M. Christophersen

29 K. Stephensen

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · T. Steensen

4 · M. Ahmer

5 · H. Mildestveit

10 · D. Tufta

15 · A. Hanssen

16 · E. Fromreide Aasbo

17 · M. Ali Alzubi

19 · S. Stronstad-Loseth

24 · E. R. Iversen

Notodden

Formation not confirmed

1 S. O. Solas

2 J. Gunnerod

4 J. Hammerli

6 S. Larsen

7 J. Galta

8 S. Jorgensen

9 E. Leandersson

20 B. Bjerkan

22 T. Nordbo

23 A. Ryste

27 M. Wenneberg

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · M. Ahmed

10 · A. Pettersen

14 · T. Foss-Erstad

15 · S. Rasberg

31 · S. Straand

Our number · bjarg winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

57% The market65%

Us57%

~~Market~~65%

We make Bjarg a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bjarg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bjarg win	57%	65%	−8
Draw	22%	19%	+3
Notodden win	21%	17%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	65%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	83%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
Bjarg or draw	79%	83%	−4
Bjarg clean sheet	35%	–	–
Notodden clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.5 5.5 2.9 1 9.9 10.3 5.4 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 6.0 6.1 3.2 4 2.9 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bjarg down, Notodden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bjarg at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Notodden away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Bjarg, 1.05 for Notodden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NOT 0–1 BJA

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1

BJARG

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 6–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

NOTODDEN

DWDWLL0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	23	+26	53
2	Mjondalen	23	+16	47
3	Brattvåg	22	+19	45
4	Bjarg	22	+19	44
5	Sotra	23	+25	42
6	Notodden	22	+11	35
7	Kvik Halden	23	+4	34
8	Træff	22	−8	30
9	Arendal	23	−8	27
10	Pors Grenland	23	−4	26
11	Sandviken	22	−12	25
12	Lysekloster	22	−22	15
13	Eik-Tønsberg	22	−26	10
14	Vidar	22	−40	10