Bjarg v jerv prediction · 2. Division - Group 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BjargDrawjerv

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bjarg 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bjarg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bjarg 51%, draw 21%, jerv 28%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Bjarg v jervBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bjarg win51%

Draw21%

jerv win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 25

VenueStavollen kunstgress

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bjarg

jerv

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bjarg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Bjarg a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bjarg v jerv~~2.11 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 50 v 56~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bjarg win	51%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
jerv win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Bjarg or draw	72%	–	–
Bjarg clean sheet	23%	–	–
jerv clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.0 4.1 3.1 1 5.7 8.6 6.4 3.2 2 6.0 8.8 6.5 3.3 3 4.2 6.1 4.6 2.3 4 2.2 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bjarg down, jerv across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,066 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bjarg at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). jerv away: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Bjarg, 1.51 for jerv. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~JER 3–1 BJA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

BJARG

WWWWWW4–1 · 6–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 4–1

JERV

WWWDDW3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	24	+27	56
2	Brattvåg	25	+21	51
3	Bjarg	24	+25	50
4	Mjondalen	25	+15	50
5	Sotra	25	+27	45
6	Notodden	25	+4	35
7	Kvik Halden	25	−1	34
8	Træff	24	−7	34
9	Pors Grenland	25	−3	30
10	Arendal	24	−5	30
11	Sandviken	25	−15	26
12	Lysekloster	25	−18	22
13	Eik-Tønsberg	25	−28	13
14	Vidar	25	−42	13