Arendal v Mjondalen prediction · 2. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ArendalDrawMjondalen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arendal 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arendal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arendal 43%, draw 23%, Mjondalen 34%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Arendal v MjondalenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Arendal win43%

Draw23%

Mjondalen win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueNorac stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arendal

Mjondalen

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mjondalen	25	+15	50
10	Arendal	24	−5	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arendal winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Arendal a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arendal v Mjondalen~~1.76 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 30 v 50~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arendal win	43%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Mjondalen win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Arendal or draw	66%	–	–
Arendal clean sheet	22%	–	–
Mjondalen clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 5.7 4.4 2.3 1 6.5 10.0 7.5 3.9 2 5.7 8.6 6.5 3.4 3 3.4 5.0 3.9 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arendal down, Mjondalen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,066 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arendal at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mjondalen away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Arendal, 1.54 for Mjondalen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MJO 4–1 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

ARENDAL

WLLLDW2–0 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

MJONDALEN

WWWWWL3–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	24	+27	56
2	Brattvåg	25	+21	51
3	Bjarg	24	+25	50
4	Mjondalen	25	+15	50
5	Sotra	25	+27	45
6	Notodden	25	+4	35
7	Kvik Halden	25	−1	34
8	Træff	24	−7	34
9	Pors Grenland	25	−3	30
10	Arendal	24	−5	30
11	Sandviken	25	−15	26
12	Lysekloster	25	−18	22
13	Eik-Tønsberg	25	−28	13
14	Vidar	25	−42	13