Arendal v Eik-Tønsberg prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Arendal 3–0 Eik-Tønsberg ARENDAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arendal win~~61%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.224

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arendal win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arendal was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
1′KICK-OFF Arendal v Eik-Tønsberg
4′Arendal find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
4′We published Arendal at 61%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Arendal 1–0 Eik-Tønsberg
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Arendal win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
28′A goal for Arendal on 28′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Arendal 2–0 Eik-Tønsberg
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Arendal win: 61% at kick-off, 94% now
29′We published Arendal at 61%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
30′S. Lille-Lovo scores for Arendal on 29′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Arendal
33′Arendal score on 33′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
33′We published Arendal at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Arendal 3–0 Eik-Tønsberg
45′HALF-TIME Arendal 3–0 Eik-Tønsberg
46′SECOND HALF Arendal 3–0 Eik-Tønsberg
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eik-Tønsberg · On: C. Flood · Off: T. Brendsrod
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arendal · On: M. Altenborg · Off: A. Skjold
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eik-Tønsberg · On: H. Danielsen · Off: M. Srour
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eik-Tønsberg · On: M. Volden · Off: W. Schmidt Godo
50′33′: A. Skjold on the scoresheet for Arendal, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
50′We published Arendal at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′We published Arendal at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Eik-Tønsberg
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arendal · On: A. Osterud · Off: J. Nundal
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arendal · On: A. Curic · Off: G. Gitau
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arendal · On: T. Dvergsdal · Off: S. Lille-Lovo
71′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Eik-Tønsberg
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Arendal
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arendal · On: A. E. Nilsen · Off: H. Suggelia
82′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Lillevik Kristian · Eik-Tønsberg
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Eik-Tønsberg · On: E. Gunnarsson Lavlund · Off: E. Muhle
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Eik-Tønsberg · On: E. Roberg · Off: B. Stokke
FTFULL TIME Arendal 3–0 Eik-Tønsberg
FTArendal 3–0 Eik-Tønsberg · Arendal win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arendal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arendal 61%, draw 20%, Eik-Tønsberg 19%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Arendal v Eik-TønsbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arendal win61%

Draw20%

Eik-Tønsberg win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueNorac stadion

Line-ups

Arendal

Eik-Tønsberg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arendal

Eik-Tønsberg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Division - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Arendal	23	−8	27
13	Eik-Tønsberg	23	−28	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arendal

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Smedplass

2 G. Gitau

4 H. Osnes

7 A. Skjold

8 M. Trengereid

14 K. Rodeblad Lowe

17 H. Suggelia

18 S. Nygaard

19 S. Lille-Lovo

21 V. Wenaas

27 J. Nundal

Coach · Vegard Hansen

Substitutes

9 · T. Dvergsdal

11 · M. Victorio

13 · S. Ostbo

15 · A. Curic

20 · A. Osterud

25 · A. E. Nilsen

28 · M. Altenborg

29 · M. Hurvenes

Eik-Tønsberg

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Moe

3 V. S. Roberg

5 T. Brendsrod

8 T. Nygaard

9 B. Stokke

10 B. Andersen

15 Lillevik Kristian

17 W. Schmidt Godo

18 E. Muhle

20 M. Srour

77 M. Solli

Coach · Ruben Tollefsen

Substitutes

2 · N. Sverrisson

4 · J. Lundhagebakken

6 · H. Danielsen

11 · A. Nygaard

14 · E. Roberg

21 · C. Flood

23 · E. Gunnarsson Lavlund

25 · K. Carlstedt

29 · M. Volden

35 · D. Rachlew-Ronningen

Our number · arendal winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

61% The market57%

Us61%

~~Market~~57%

We make Arendal a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arendal v Eik-Tønsberg~~2.21 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 10~~9 v 13

~~The market · Arendal win~~57% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arendal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arendal win	61%	57%	+4
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Eik-Tønsberg win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Arendal or draw	81%	79%	+2
Arendal clean sheet	33%	–	–
Eik-Tønsberg clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 4.2 2.4 1 8.0 8.8 5.0 2 8.6 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 6.3 7.0 3.9 4 3.5 3.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arendal down, Eik-Tønsberg across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,054 2. Division - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arendal at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Eik-Tønsberg away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Arendal, 1.13 for Eik-Tønsberg. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~EIK 0–0 ARE · EIK 1–3 ARE · ARE 1–1 EIK · ARE 1–2 EIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ARENDAL

LWLLLD0–4 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

EIK-TØNSBERG

LWLLWL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	jerv	23	+26	53
2	Brattvåg	23	+21	48
3	Bjarg	23	+22	47
4	Mjondalen	23	+16	47
5	Sotra	23	+25	42
6	Notodden	23	+8	35
7	Kvik Halden	23	+4	34
8	Træff	23	−7	33
9	Arendal	23	−8	27
10	Pors Grenland	23	−4	26
11	Sandviken	23	−13	25
12	Lysekloster	23	−20	18
13	Eik-Tønsberg	23	−28	10
14	Vidar	23	−42	10