Stromsgodset v Kongsvinger prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Stromsgodset 5–1 Kongsvinger STROMSGODSET WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stromsgodset win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.342

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stromsgodset win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Stromsgodset v Kongsvinger
2′Much as we predicted: Stromsgodset was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–20–31
3′A goal for Stromsgodset on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–16–16
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Stromsgodset 1–0 Kongsvinger
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Stromsgodset win: 48% at kick-off, 69% now
4′We published Stromsgodset at 48%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–16–16
17′18′ and it is 2–0: Stromsgodset have scored. 2–0 · 86–9–5
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Stromsgodset 2–0 Kongsvinger · H. Stengel
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Stromsgodset win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
20′We published Stromsgodset at 48%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
24′We published Stromsgodset at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–0 · 95–3–1
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Stromsgodset 3–0 Kongsvinger · S. Pingel
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Stromsgodset win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
24′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' Stromsgodset
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Stromsgodset win: 48% at kick-off, 87% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Stromsgodset 3–0 Kongsvinger · S. Pingel
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Stromsgodset win: 48% at kick-off, 96% now
31′Stromsgodset find the net on 31′. 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Stromsgodset 4–0 Kongsvinger · S. Pingel
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Stromsgodset win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
42′A goal for Stromsgodset on 42′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 99–1–0
42′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Kongsvinger · On: M. Gjerstrom · Off: E. Nielsen
42′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Kongsvinger · On: A. Chaminta · Off: M. Flores
45′SECOND HALF Stromsgodset 4–0 Kongsvinger
47′We published Stromsgodset at 48%. Our model now makes it 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kongsvinger · On: E. Olawore · Off: R. Christiansen
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' V. Fors · Kongsvinger
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stromsgodset · On: L. Vilsvik · Off: O. Enersen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Stromsgodset · On: M. Mehnert · Off: E. Melkersen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kongsvinger · On: G. Johnson · Off: L. Langrekken
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Stromsgodset · On: E. Ingebrethsen · Off: S. Pingel
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Stromsgodset · On: E. Ingebrethsen · Off: S. Pingel
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Stromsgodset 5–0 Kongsvinger · S. Pingel
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Stromsgodset · On: A. Heredia-Randen · Off: K. Krasniqi
79′79′ and it is 5–0: Stromsgodset have scored. 5–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stromsgodset · On: G. Wikheim · Off: K. Antonsen
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Stromsgodset 5–1 Kongsvinger
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kongsvinger · On: S. Elmi · Off: F. Christensen
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Stromsgodset
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Kongsvinger
88′Kongsvinger find the net on 88′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
88′6 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' G. Johnson · Kongsvinger
93′Full time, 5–1. We called Stromsgodset at 48% — that one lands. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stromsgodset 5–1 Kongsvinger
FTStromsgodset 5–1 Kongsvinger · Stromsgodset win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Stromsgodset v KongsvingerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Stromsgodset win48%

Draw20%

Kongsvinger win31%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueMarienlyst Stadion

RefereeH. Sletner

Line-ups

Stromsgodset

Kongsvinger

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stromsgodset

Kongsvinger

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kongsvinger	25	39	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	34	54

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stromsgodset

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Lamhauge

14 O. Enersen

25 J. Taaje

71 G. Valsvik

3 V. Dedes

8 K. Krasniqi

22 K. Antonsen

9 E. Melkersen

10 H. Stengel

16 F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

11 S. Pingel

Coach · Magne Hoseth

Substitutes

5 · B. Sormo

12 · S. Lampinen-Skaug

15 · A. Heredia-Randen

23 · E. Ingebrethsen

26 · L. Vilsvik

38 · J. Sorum

47 · S. Andresen

77 · M. Mehnert

80 · G. Wikheim

Kongsvinger

Formation not confirmed

93 A. Gorodovoy

2 V. Fors

3 S. Norheim

12 M. Mbow

19 E. Nielsen

27 M. Sande

23 F. Christensen

8 A. Dybevik

28 R. Christiansen

22 L. Langrekken

18 M. Flores

Coach · Johan Vennberg

Substitutes

1 · W. Da Rocha

5 · D. Lysgard

9 · G. Johnson

15 · V. Lysell

16 · P. Udnaes

17 · M. Gjerstrom

21 · A. Chaminta

25 · S. Elmi

26 · E. Olawore

Our number · stromsgodset winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Stromsgodset a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stromsgodset v Kongsvinger~~2.30 – 1.84

~~Last six in 1. Division~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 54 v 56~~3 v 1

~~The market · Stromsgodset win~~52% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stromsgodset win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stromsgodset win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	20%	22%	−1
Kongsvinger win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	78%	76%	+1
Both teams to score	75%	73%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	92%	89%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Stromsgodset or draw	69%	74%	−5
Stromsgodset clean sheet	17%	–	–
Kongsvinger clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.1 2.6 2.7 1 3.4 7.2 6.1 3.7 2 4.3 7.6 6.9 4.2 3 3.3 5.8 5.2 3.2 4 3.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stromsgodset down, Kongsvinger across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stromsgodset at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kongsvinger away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Stromsgodset, 1.84 for Kongsvinger. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KON 4–4 STR

Form · last six in 1. Division

STROMSGODSET

WDWWWW3–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 5–1

KONGSVINGER

DWDWWW4–4 · 9–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 6–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kongsvinger	25	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	13	42
6	Bryne	25	1	38
7	hodd	25	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	-1	31
10	Strommen	26	-12	30
11	Lyn	25	-14	28
12	Moss	25	-15	28
13	Sandnes ULF	25	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	-16	23
15	Asane	26	-23	23
16	Raufoss	24	-36	19