Stromsgodset v Haugesund prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Stromsgodset 5–0 Haugesund STROMSGODSET WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stromsgodset win~~49%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.396

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.360

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stromsgodset win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stromsgodset was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–20–31
1′KICK-OFF Stromsgodset v Haugesund
7′We published Stromsgodset at 49%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–15–16
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Stromsgodset 1–0 Haugesund
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Stromsgodset win: 49% at kick-off, 69% now
9′Stromsgodset find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–15–16
28′We published Stromsgodset at 49%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–13
28′We published Stromsgodset at 49%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–5
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Stromsgodset 2–0 Haugesund
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Stromsgodset win: 49% at kick-off, 87% now
29′A goal for Stromsgodset on 29′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–5
31′S. Pingel scores for Stromsgodset on 28′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
34′Goals are coming at about the 4.3 we expected. 2–0 · 87–8–4
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Stromsgodset win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
42′We published Stromsgodset at 49%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–0 · 97–3–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Stromsgodset 3–0 Haugesund
43′Stromsgodset score on 43′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Stromsgodset
45′SECOND HALF Stromsgodset 3–0 Haugesund
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Stromsgodset
48′HALF-TIME Stromsgodset 3–0 Haugesund
52′We published Stromsgodset at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Stromsgodset 4–0 Haugesund
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Stromsgodset win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
53′Stromsgodset find the net on 53′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
56′Stromsgodset ahead on 52′ through E. Melkersen. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stromsgodset · On: L. Vilsvik · Off: O. Enersen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Haugesund · On: P. Hannola · Off: L. Remmem
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Haugesund · On: A. Grindhaug · Off: S. Nilsen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stromsgodset · On: A. Heredia-Randen · Off: K. Krasniqi
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Haugesund
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Stromsgodset · On: M. Mehnert · Off: S. Pingel
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Stromsgodset · On: G. Wikheim · Off: E. Melkersen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Haugesund · On: I. Camara · Off: N. Sandberg
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Haugesund · On: E. Rohd · Off: B. Leite
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stromsgodset · On: B. Sormo · Off: K. Antonsen
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Stromsgodset 5–0 Haugesund
86′A goal for Stromsgodset on 85′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Haugesund
92′Full time, 5–0. We called Stromsgodset at 49% — that one lands. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stromsgodset 5–0 Haugesund
FTStromsgodset 5–0 Haugesund · Stromsgodset win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stromsgodset are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stromsgodset 49%, draw 20%, Haugesund 31%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Stromsgodset v HaugesundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stromsgodset win49%

Draw20%

Haugesund win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 27

VenueMarienlyst Stadion

RefereeS. Hauge

Line-ups

Stromsgodset

Haugesund

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stromsgodset

Haugesund

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stromsgodset

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Lamhauge

14 O. Enersen

25 J. Taaje

71 G. Valsvik

3 V. Dedes

8 K. Krasniqi

22 K. Antonsen

9 E. Melkersen

10 H. Stengel

16 F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

11 S. Pingel

Coach · Magne Hoseth

Substitutes

5 · B. Sormo

12 · S. Lampinen-Skaug

15 · A. Heredia-Randen

23 · E. Ingebrethsen

26 · L. Vilsvik

77 · M. Mehnert

80 · G. Wikheim

Haugesund

Formation not confirmed

32 F. Stople

18 V. Solheim

3 S. Molde

23 J. Norbye

42 A. Bondhus

14 S. Nilsen

16 B. Leite

26 E. Andersen

41 L. Remmem

11 N. Sandberg

29 S. Diarra

Coach · Endre Eide

Substitutes

7 · E. Rohd

8 · P. Hannola

20 · I. Seone

21 · E. Fauskanger

30 · I. Camara

37 · R. Schifferl

40 · A. Grindhaug

Our number · stromsgodset winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Stromsgodset a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stromsgodset v Haugesund~~2.42 – 1.92

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 57 v 59~~2 v 1

~~The market · Stromsgodset win~~51% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stromsgodset win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stromsgodset win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Haugesund win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Both teams to score	77%	72%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	93%	89%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	62%	56%	+6
Stromsgodset or draw	69%	73%	−4
Stromsgodset clean sheet	15%	–	–
Haugesund clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.2 2.5 1 2.9 6.5 5.8 3.7 2 3.9 7.2 6.8 4.4 2.1 3 3.1 5.8 5.4 3.5 4 3.5 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stromsgodset down, Haugesund across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,428 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stromsgodset at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Haugesund away: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Stromsgodset, 1.92 for Haugesund. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAU 4–2 STR · STR 2–0 HAU · HAU 0–5 STR · HAU 0–0 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

STROMSGODSET

DWWWWW1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 5–1

HAUGESUND

WWWWDW2–0 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	26	+38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	+38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	+35	56
4	Stabaek	26	+29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	+14	45
6	Bryne	26	+1	39
7	hodd	26	−10	35
8	Egersund	26	−11	33
9	Ranheim	26	−1	32
10	Strommen	26	−12	30
11	Moss	26	−15	29
12	Lyn	26	−17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	−13	26
14	Sogndal	25	−17	23
15	Asane	26	−23	23
16	Raufoss	25	−36	20