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Model 1.1

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Strommen v Asane

Strommen
6–1Full time
Asane

1. Division · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 16:31
Strommen 6–1 Asane STROMMEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Strommen win46%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.448
The market’s Brier score0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Strommen win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Strommen 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–22–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Strommen v Asane
  4. 12′Strommen find the net on 13′. 0–0. 0–0 · 45–23–32
  5. 13′We said Strommen at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–17–14
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Strommen 1–0 Asane
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Strommen win: 46% at kick-off, 68% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–19–12
  9. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Strommen
  10. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Strommen 2–0 Asane · J. Kristengard
  11. 33′A goal for Strommen on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–8–3
  12. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Strommen win: 46% at kick-off, 88% now
  13. 34′We said Strommen at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
  14. 35′J. Kristengard scores for Strommen on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
  15. 39′We said Strommen at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
  16. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Asane
  17. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' S. Brudvik · Asane
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Strommen 2–0 Asane
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Strommen 2–0 Asane
  20. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Asane · On: L. Rossi · Off: T. L. Furebotn
  21. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Asane · On: S. Haga · Off: S. Brudvik
  22. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Strommen 2–1 Asane
  23. 56′We said Strommen at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 2–1 · 73–20–7
  24. 56′Strommen find the net on 58′. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–7
  25. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Strommen win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
  26. 56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Strommen
  27. 57′⚽ GOAL · 32' Strommen 3–1 Asane · H. Diaby
  28. 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  29. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Strommen 3–1 Asane · H. Diaby
  30. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Strommen win: 46% at kick-off, 94% now
  31. 63′We said Strommen at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  32. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Strommen win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  33. 68′A goal for Strommen on 68′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–0–0
  34. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Strommen 4–1 Asane
  35. 69′We said Strommen at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 70′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 72′73′ and it is 5–1: Strommen have scored. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  38. 72′⚽ GOAL · 68' Strommen 5–1 Asane · A. Nord (assist J. Kristengard)
  39. 73′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Asane · On: E. Myklebust · Off: M. Haga
  41. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Asane · On: B. Baldursson · Off: J. Eikrem
  42. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Strommen · On: K. Somesi · Off: C. Crestani
  43. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Strommen · On: M. Svenningsen Gronn · Off: J. Kristengard
  44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Strommen · On: M. Moldskred · Off: S. Beck
  45. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Strommen 6–1 Asane · M. Waehler
  46. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Asane · On: G. Ramsay · Off: M. Fismen
  47. 89′Strommen find the net on 89′. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Strommen · On: G. Grobelnik · Off: A. Nord Corrected
  49. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Strommen · On: E. Rogne · Off: S. Sharif
  50. 90′7 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  51. FTFULL TIME Strommen 6–1 Asane
  52. FTStrommen 6–1 Asane · Strommen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Strommen v AsaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

Strommen win46%
Draw22%
Asane win32%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00

RefereeA. Al Fahad

Line-ups

Strommen

Asane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Strommen

Asane

3Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Strommen25-1727
15Asane25-1823

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Strommen

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Skjaerstein

98 T. Romo Lillo

4 M. Balatoni

25 P. Lindgren

5 S. Sharif

3 C. Crestani

6 S. Beck

16 A. Nord

24 M. Paulsen

11 M. Waehler

14 J. Kristengard

Coach · Marcus Ericson

Substitutes

1 · M. Kristiansen

8 · K. Somesi

13 · A. Solberg

18 · M. Svenningsen Gronn

19 · E. Rogne

21 · T. Ogboji

26 · M. Moldskred

28 · N. Ohr

29 · G. Grobelnik

Asane

Formation not confirmed

24 M. Klausen

4 H. Diaby

10 K. Barmen

6 S. Brudvik

22 D. Wolfe

8 J. Eikrem

20 S. Nygard

77 K. Haga

17 T. L. Furebotn

14 M. Haga

26 M. Fismen

Coach · Thomas Lyngbo

Substitutes

1 · S. Selin

7 · H. Geelmuyden

11 · L. Rossi

18 · B. Baldursson

23 · G. Ramsay

30 · E. Myklebust

45 · S. Haga

Our number · strommen winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
46% The market50%
Us46%
Market50%

We make Strommen a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Strommen v Asane1.98 – 1.63
Last six in 1. DivisionW2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 27 v 2312 v 15
The market · Strommen win50% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1914 OCT 04:46
Our probability · strommen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Strommen win46%50%−5
Draw22%23%−1
Asane win32%26%+5
Over 2.5 goals69%68%+2
Both teams to score69%67%+2
Over 1.5 goals88%85%+3
Over 3.5 goals48%47%+2
Strommen or draw68%74%−5
Strommen clean sheet20%––
Asane clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.4 4.1 3.7 2.0 1 5.0 9.2 7.0 3.8 2 5.3 8.4 6.8 3.7 3 3.5 5.6 4.5 2.4 4 2.8 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Strommen down, Asane across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsASA 4–5 STR · ASA 2–1 STR · STR 1–0 ASA

Form · last six in 1. Division

STROMMEN

WWDLDD2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 2–2

ASANE

DDDLLW2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kongsvinger253956
2Haugesund253556
3Stromsgodset253454
4Stabaek252646
5ODD Ballklubb251342
6Bryne25138
7hodd25-1034
8Egersund25-1132
9Ranheim25-131
10Lyn25-1428
11Moss25-1528
12Strommen25-1727
13Sandnes ULF25-1026
14Sogndal24-1623
15Asane25-1823
16Raufoss24-3619

The competition's standings.