Stabaek v Strommen prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Stabaek 2–2 Strommen STABAEK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stabaek win~~66%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.141

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.140

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stabaek win at 66%.
0′Much as we predicted: Stabaek was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–17–17
0′KICK-OFF Stabaek v Strommen
2′Much as we predicted: Stabaek was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–17–17
26′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Stabaek
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Stabaek 0–0 Strommen
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Stabaek 0–1 Strommen
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Stabaek 1–1 Strommen · G. Grobelnik
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Stabaek 1–1 Strommen
45′SECOND HALF Stabaek 1–1 Strommen
46′HALF-TIME Stabaek 1–1 Strommen
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Strommen · On: M. Waehler · Off: G. Grobelnik
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stabaek · On: M. Dahlby · Off: G. Vetti
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stabaek · On: S. Olderheim · Off: A. Aamodt
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stabaek · On: A. Hoven · Off: G. Rapp
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Strommen · On: K. Somesi · Off: M. Moldskred
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stabaek · On: S. Olderheim · Off: A. Aamodt
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stabaek · On: A. Hoven · Off: G. Rapp
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Strommen · On: K. Somesi · Off: M. Moldskred
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Stabaek 1–2 Strommen · A. Sanyang
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Stabaek 1–2 Strommen
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Stabaek
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Stabaek
87′⚽ GOAL · 81' Stabaek 1–2 Strommen · M. Waehler (assist K. Somesi)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Strommen · On: E. Rogne · Off: A. Nord
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Strommen · On: T. Ogboji · Off: M. Paulsen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Strommen · On: A. Solberg · Off: M. Balatoni
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Stabaek 2–2 Strommen · M. Waehler
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Stabaek 2–2 Strommen
FTFULL TIME Stabaek 2–2 Strommen
FTStabaek 2–2 Strommen · Stabaek win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Stabaek win66%

Draw17%

Strommen win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueNadderud Stadion

RefereeH. Nervik

Line-ups

Stabaek

Strommen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stabaek

Strommen

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
11	Strommen	24	−17	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stabaek

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Ulla

2 F. Riise

4 N. Naess

14 E. Lereng

29 K. Ekorness

6 A. Matic

17 G. Vetti

23 W. Wendt

33 A. Aamodt

9 A. Sanyang

20 G. Rapp

Coach · Andre Kjell

Substitutes

5 · J. Skjelvik

8 · M. Dahlby

10 · S. Olderheim

12 · L. Gunnerod

15 · O. Veum

16 · A. Hoven

24 · J. Hanstad

31 · A. Lie

34 · L. Myklebust

Strommen

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Skjaerstein

98 T. Romo Lillo

4 M. Balatoni

25 P. Lindgren

5 S. Sharif

26 M. Moldskred

6 S. Beck

16 A. Nord

24 M. Paulsen

14 J. Kristengard

29 G. Grobelnik

Coach · Marcus Ericson

Substitutes

1 · M. Kristiansen

8 · K. Somesi

11 · M. Waehler

13 · A. Solberg

18 · M. Svenningsen Gronn

19 · E. Rogne

21 · T. Ogboji

27 · T. Benjamin

28 · N. Ohr

Our number · stabaek winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

66% The market67%

Us66%

~~Market~~67%

We make Stabaek a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.7–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stabaek win	66%	67%	−1
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Strommen win	17%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Both teams to score	68%	64%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Stabaek or draw	83%	85%	−2
Stabaek clean sheet	27%	–	–
Strommen clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.3 2.2 1 4.6 6.8 4.3 2 6.5 8.4 5.6 2.5 3 5.8 7.4 4.9 2.2 4 3.9 5.0 3.3 5 2.2 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Stabaek down, Strommen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stabaek at home: 3.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Strommen away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Stabaek, 1.33 for Strommen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STR 1–0 STA

Form · last six in 1. Division

STABAEK

WLLLWL4–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

STROMMEN

WWWDLD3–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19