Stabaek v Sandnes ULF prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Stabaek 4–1 Sandnes ULF STABAEK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stabaek win~~65%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.185

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.183

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stabaek win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Stabaek v Sandnes ULF
2′Much as we predicted: Stabaek was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–16
6′We published Stabaek at 65%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Stabaek 1–0 Sandnes ULF
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Stabaek win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
7′6′ and it is 1–0: Stabaek have scored. 1–0 · 83–11–6
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sandnes ULF
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' A. Nyhagen · Sandnes ULF
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' A. Nyhagen · Sandnes ULF
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 82–12–5
35′🟨 YELLOW · 26' A. Nyhagen · Sandnes ULF
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Stabaek
45′HALF-TIME Stabaek 1–0 Sandnes ULF
45′SECOND HALF Stabaek 1–0 Sandnes ULF
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' W. Wendt · Stabaek
46′Stabaek find the net on 47′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Stabaek 2–0 Sandnes ULF · A. Sanyang
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandnes ULF · On: K. Pereira · Off: O. Bardarson
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandnes ULF · On: M. Sundberg · Off: A. Memed
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sandnes ULF · On: E. Debes · Off: Y. de Lanlay
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Stabaek win: 65% at kick-off, 96% now
47′We published Stabaek at 65%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Stabaek 3–0 Sandnes ULF · A. Sanyang
62′A goal for Stabaek on 63′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′We published Stabaek at 65%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stabaek · On: F. Krogstad · Off: W. Wendt
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stabaek · On: J. Hanstad · Off: A. Sanyang
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stabaek · On: G. Vetti · Off: A. Matic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sandnes ULF · On: E. Berland · Off: A. Nyhagen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sandnes ULF · On: S. Saugestad · Off: K. Kostadinov
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Stabaek 3–1 Sandnes ULF
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stabaek · On: O. Veum · Off: E. Lereng
73′73′ and it is 3–1: O. Sundgot on the scoresheet for Sandnes ULF. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Stabaek · On: S. Olderheim · Off: J. Hanstad
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Sandnes ULF
83′Stabaek find the net on 84′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' S. Saugestad · Sandnes ULF
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Stabaek 4–1 Sandnes ULF
84′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stabaek 4–1 Sandnes ULF
FTStabaek 4–1 Sandnes ULF · Stabaek win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Stabaek v Sandnes ULFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Stabaek win65%

Draw19%

Sandnes ULF win16%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueNadderud Stadion

RefereeP. Heiberg

Line-ups

Stabaek

Sandnes ULF

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stabaek

Sandnes ULF

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Stabaek	25	26	46
13	Sandnes ULF	25	-10	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stabaek

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Ulla

16 A. Hoven

4 N. Naess

14 E. Lereng

29 K. Ekorness

6 A. Matic

28 D. Santos

23 W. Wendt

20 G. Rapp

8 M. Dahlby

9 A. Sanyang

Coach · Andre Kjell

Substitutes

2 · F. Riise

5 · J. Skjelvik

10 · S. Olderheim

12 · L. Gunnerod

15 · O. Veum

17 · G. Vetti

21 · F. Krogstad

24 · J. Hanstad

33 · A. Aamodt

Sandnes ULF

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Flolid

4 A. Kryger

3 F. Botnen

5 G. Oregaard

17 A. Nyhagen

16 Y. de Lanlay

15 Z. Nsoni

10 K. Kostadinov

7 O. Bardarson

77 A. Memed

9 O. Sundgot

Coach · Arturo Cleveland

Substitutes

1 · A. Falch

8 · S. Saugestad

11 · M. Sundberg

18 · A. Bruseth

19 · K. Pereira

23 · E. Berland

25 · E. Debes

28 · M. Henriksen

Our number · stabaek winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

65% The market65%

Us65%

~~Market~~65%

We make Stabaek a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stabaek v Sandnes ULF~~2.47 – 1.17

~~Last six in 1. Division~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 46 v 26~~4 v 13

~~The market · Stabaek win~~65% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stabaek win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stabaek win	65%	65%	0
Draw	19%	19%	0
Sandnes ULF win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Stabaek or draw	84%	84%	0
Stabaek clean sheet	31%	–	–
Sandnes ULF clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 2.8 1 6.2 8.0 4.5 2 7.9 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 6.5 7.4 4.3 4 4.0 4.6 2.7 5 2.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Stabaek down, Sandnes ULF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stabaek at home: 3.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sandnes ULF away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Stabaek, 1.17 for Sandnes ULF. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 STA · SAN 1–3 STA · STA 3–0 SAN · SAN 2–2 STA

Form · last six in 1. Division

STABAEK

LLLWLD1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

SANDNES ULF

WDLLDD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kongsvinger	25	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	13	42
6	Bryne	25	1	38
7	hodd	25	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	-1	31
10	Strommen	26	-12	30
11	Lyn	25	-14	28
12	Moss	25	-15	28
13	Sandnes ULF	25	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	-16	23
15	Asane	26	-23	23
16	Raufoss	24	-36	19