Sogndal v Raufoss prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:30

Sogndal 2–1 Raufoss SOGNDAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sogndal win~~57%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.279

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sogndal win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sogndal was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–22
1′KICK-OFF Sogndal v Raufoss
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Sogndal win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′HALF-TIME Sogndal 0–0 Raufoss
45′SECOND HALF Sogndal 0–0 Raufoss
46′We said Sogndal at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–33–21
48′We said Sogndal at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–21
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogndal · On: O. Helen · Off: P. Asp
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogndal · On: R. Onyango · Off: H. Woxen
55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 46–33–21
57′We published Sogndal at 57%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Sogndal 1–0 Raufoss
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sogndal win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
58′A goal for Sogndal on 57′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Raufoss · On: E. Asvestad · Off: E. Sildnes
72′We published Sogndal at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′A goal for Raufoss on 73′. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′We said Sogndal at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–59–14
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Sogndal 1–1 Raufoss
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Sogndal win: 57% at kick-off, 26% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Sogndal win 85%)
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Raufoss · On: A. Rogulj · Off: J. Sjol
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sogndal · On: L. Gausdal · Off: V. Hagen Corrected
76′We said Sogndal at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
80′We published Sogndal at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sogndal 2–1 Raufoss
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sogndal win: 57% at kick-off, 90% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Sogndal win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 71%)
81′Sogndal find the net on 80′. 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
81′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–1 · 90–9–1
83′Sogndal ahead on 79′ through K. Arierhi. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Raufoss · On: Y. Agyeman · Off: E. Froysa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sogndal · On: E. Flo · Off: V. Hagen
88′We published Sogndal at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′Full time, 2–1. We called Sogndal at 57% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Sogndal win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Sogndal 2–1 Raufoss
FTSogndal 2–1 Raufoss · Sogndal win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sogndal are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sogndal 57%, draw 21%, Raufoss 22%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sogndal v RaufossBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Sogndal win57%

Draw21%

Raufoss win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueFosshaugane Campus

RefereeA. Al Fahad

Line-ups

Sogndal

Raufoss

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sogndal

Raufoss

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sogndal	26	−17	24
16	Raufoss	26	−40	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sogndal

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jendal

4 E. Hovland

14 J. Haruna

35 E. L. Hillestad

32 M. Oren

16 L. Vapne

7 H. Woxen

10 K. Skaanes

20 P. Asp

9 K. Arierhi

18 V. Hagen

Coach · Eirik Bakke

Substitutes

8 · L. Gausdal

11 · E. Mensah

15 · O. Helen

19 · T. Pippola

24 · K. Bieszczad

30 · S. Stavo

39 · E. Flo

88 · R. Onyango

Raufoss

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Klemensson

15 E. Gartig

16 M. Larsen

6 E. Froysa

2 J. Sjol

17 K. Onsrud

8 H. Holter

11 N. Fremstad

7 E. Sildnes

19 H. Karlsen

27 R. Zekhnini

Coach · Petter Berget Ole

Substitutes

3 · E. Asvestad

5 · E. Gjerde

9 · A. Rogulj

14 · Y. Agyeman

31 · U. Danbolt

44 · A. Sarr

Our number · sogndal winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

57% The market64%

Us57%

~~Market~~64%

We make Sogndal a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sogndal v Raufoss~~2.15 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 20~~14 v 16

~~The market · Sogndal win~~64% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sogndal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sogndal win	57%	64%	−7
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Raufoss win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Sogndal or draw	78%	84%	−6
Sogndal clean sheet	29%	–	–
Raufoss clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 4.0 3.8 2.7 1 6.7 9.4 5.6 2.4 2 7.5 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.4 6.7 4.2 4 2.9 3.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sogndal down, Raufoss across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,436 1. Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 215 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sogndal at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Raufoss away: 1.33 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Sogndal, 1.27 for Raufoss. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAU 3–1 SOG · RAU 1–3 SOG · SOG 2–2 RAU · RAU 4–1 SOG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

SOGNDAL

LDLLLD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–3

RAUFOSS

LWLLDL1–9 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stromsgodset	27	+43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	+39	59
3	Haugesund	27	+33	59
4	Stabaek	27	+30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	+13	45
6	Bryne	27	−1	39
7	hodd	27	−6	38
8	Ranheim	27	+1	35
9	Egersund	27	−11	34
10	Strommen	27	−11	33
11	Lyn	27	−16	31
12	Moss	27	−16	29
13	Sandnes ULF	27	−17	26
14	Sogndal	26	−17	24
15	Asane	27	−24	23
16	Raufoss	26	−40	20