Sogndal v Kongsvinger prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SogndalDrawKongsvinger

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kongsvinger 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kongsvinger are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sogndal 25%, draw 20%, Kongsvinger 55%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Sogndal v KongsvingerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sogndal win25%

Draw20%

Kongsvinger win55%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueFosshaugane Campus

RefereeA. Medic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sogndal

Kongsvinger

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

Last match: 18 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kongsvinger	27	+39	59
13	Sogndal	27	−16	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kongsvinger winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market56%

Us55%

~~Market~~56%

We make Kongsvinger a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sogndal v Kongsvinger~~1.58 – 2.41

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 59~~13 v 2

~~The market · Kongsvinger win~~56% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kongsvinger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sogndal win	25%	24%	+1
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Kongsvinger win	55%	56%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Both teams to score	72%	72%	0
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Sogndal or draw	45%	44%	+1
Sogndal clean sheet	10%	–	–
Kongsvinger clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 2.4 4.2 5.3 4.2 2.6 1 2.7 7.5 8.3 6.5 4.0 2.02 2.4 5.6 6.5 5.1 3.1 3 3.0 3.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sogndal down, Kongsvinger across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,438 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sogndal at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kongsvinger away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Sogndal, 2.41 for Kongsvinger. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KON 5–1 SOG · SOG 2–2 KON · KON 4–2 SOG · SOG 3–3 KON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 13 Sept

SOGNDAL

DLLLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

KONGSVINGER

DWWWLW1–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 6–2 · 1–5 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stromsgodset	27	+43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	+39	59
3	Haugesund	27	+33	59
4	Stabaek	27	+30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	+13	45
6	Bryne	27	−1	39
7	Ranheim	28	+3	38
8	hodd	27	−6	38
9	Egersund	27	−11	34
10	Strommen	27	−11	33
11	Lyn	27	−16	31
12	Moss	27	−16	29
13	Sogndal	27	−16	27
14	Sandnes ULF	27	−17	26
15	Asane	27	−24	23
16	Raufoss	28	−43	20