Sandnes ULF v Haugesund prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sandnes ULF 1–1 Haugesund HAUGESUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Haugesund win~~66%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.154

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Haugesund win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Haugesund 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 17–16–66
1′KICK-OFF Sandnes ULF v Haugesund
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Sandnes ULF 0–1 Haugesund
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sandnes ULF 0–1 Haugesund
18′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Haugesund
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Sandnes ULF
45′SECOND HALF Sandnes ULF 0–1 Haugesund
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sandnes ULF 0–2 Haugesund · L. Remmem
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Sandnes ULF 0–1 Haugesund
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Haugesund · On: A. Grindhaug · Off: E. Andersen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sandnes ULF · On: K. Pereira · Off: Y. de Lanlay
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sandnes ULF · On: E. Debes · Off: O. Bardarson
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sandnes ULF · On: E. Debes · Off: O. Bardarson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Haugesund · On: P. Hannola · Off: B. Leite
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sandnes ULF · On: A. Memed · Off: M. Sundberg
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sandnes ULF · On: A. Memed · Off: M. Sundberg
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sandnes ULF 1–1 Haugesund · L. Remmem
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Sandnes ULF 1–1 Haugesund
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Haugesund · On: E. Rohd · Off: L. Remmem
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Sandnes ULF 1–1 Haugesund
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Sandnes ULF
FTFULL TIME Sandnes ULF 1–1 Haugesund
FTSandnes ULF 1–1 Haugesund · Haugesund win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sandnes ULF win17%

Draw17%

Haugesund win66%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

RefereeM. Koloy

Line-ups

Sandnes ULF

Haugesund

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sandnes ULF

Haugesund

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sandnes ULF

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Flolid

4 A. Kryger

3 F. Botnen

5 G. Oregaard

17 A. Nyhagen

7 O. Bardarson

10 K. Kostadinov

15 Z. Nsoni

16 Y. de Lanlay

11 M. Sundberg

9 O. Sundgot

Coach · Arturo Cleveland

Substitutes

1 · A. Falch

6 · A. Jorgensen

8 · S. Saugestad

14 · P. Brekke

19 · K. Pereira

23 · E. Berland

25 · E. Debes

28 · M. Henriksen

77 · A. Memed

Haugesund

Formation not confirmed

32 F. Stople

18 V. Solheim

3 S. Molde

23 J. Norbye

42 A. Bondhus

14 S. Nilsen

16 B. Leite

11 N. Sandberg

41 L. Remmem

26 E. Andersen

29 S. Diarra

Coach · Endre Eide

Substitutes

7 · E. Rohd

8 · P. Hannola

20 · I. Seone

21 · E. Fauskanger

25 · M. Hope

37 · R. Schifferl

40 · A. Grindhaug

44 · P. E. Lie

Our number · haugesund winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

66% The market61%

Us66%

~~Market~~61%

We make Haugesund a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · haugesund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandnes ULF win	17%	19%	−2
Draw	17%	20%	−3
Haugesund win	66%	61%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	79%	71%	+8
Both teams to score	71%	66%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	92%	87%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	61%	51%	+10
Sandnes ULF or draw	34%	39%	−5
Sandnes ULF clean sheet	6%	–	–
Haugesund clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%

0123450 3.9 5.7 5.3 3.8 2.21 6.1 7.9 7.4 5.2 3.02 4.1 5.6 5.2 3.7 2.13 2.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandnes ULF down, Haugesund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sandnes ULF at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Haugesund away: 2.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Sandnes ULF, 2.83 for Haugesund. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HAU 2–0 SAN

Form · last six in 1. Division

SANDNES ULF

LWDLLD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–3

HAUGESUND

WWWWWW3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19