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Raufoss v Ranheim

Raufoss

1–3Full time

Ranheim

1. Division · SAT 24 OCT · NAMMO Stadion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Raufoss 1–3 Ranheim RANHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ranheim win~~52%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.343

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.290

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ranheim win at 52%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ranheim was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 28–20–52
2′KICK-OFF Raufoss v Ranheim
9′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–0 · 49–20–31
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Raufoss 1–0 Ranheim
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 31% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Raufoss win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Ranheim win 51%)
10′A goal for Raufoss on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 49–20–31
11′R. Zekhnini scores for Raufoss on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 49–20–31
15′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 50–21–29
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 53–23–25
32′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–23–24
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Raufoss
34′Ranheim score on 34′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–26–47
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Raufoss 1–1 Ranheim
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 47% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Ranheim win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Raufoss win 53%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Raufoss
45′HALF-TIME Raufoss 1–1 Ranheim
45′SECOND HALF Raufoss 1–1 Ranheim
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Raufoss · On: A. Rogulj · Off: H. Karlsen
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
54′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 25–35–40
56′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 25–36–39
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ranheim win 38%)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Raufoss · On: E. Sildnes · Off: J. Sjol
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: A. Fossli · Off: G. Mogensen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: H. Gangstad · Off: N. Pallas
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Raufoss · On: E. Froysa · Off: M. Aanesland
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
81′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 13–69–18
84′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 9–78–13
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ranheim · On: S. Haugland · Off: M. Sylva
88′We said Ranheim at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
88′We published Ranheim at 52%. Our model now makes it 93%. 1–2 · 0–6–93
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Raufoss · On: Y. Agyeman · Off: K. Onsrud
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Raufoss · On: E. Gjerde · Off: N. Fremstad
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ranheim · On: L. Skammelsrud · Off: F. Nyenetue
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Raufoss 1–2 Ranheim
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Ranheim win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Ranheim win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 84%)
90′Ranheim find the net on 88′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′We published Ranheim at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′A goal for Ranheim on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′We published Ranheim at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Raufoss 1–3 Ranheim
FTFULL TIME Raufoss 1–3 Ranheim
FTRaufoss 1–3 Ranheim · Ranheim win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ranheim are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Raufoss 27%, draw 20%, Ranheim 52%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Raufoss v RanheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Raufoss win27%

Draw20%

Ranheim win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueNAMMO Stadion

RefereeA. Bodding

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Raufoss

Ranheim

3Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

Last match: 18 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ranheim	27	+1	35
16	Raufoss	27	−41	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ranheim winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

52% The market56%

Us52%

~~Market~~56%

We make Ranheim a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Raufoss v Ranheim~~1.69 – 2.38

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 35~~16 v 8

~~The market · Ranheim win~~56% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ranheim win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raufoss win	27%	23%	+4
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Ranheim win	52%	56%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Both teams to score	73%	71%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Raufoss or draw	48%	44%	+4
Raufoss clean sheet	10%	–	–
Ranheim clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%

0123450 2.3 3.8 4.8 3.8 2.3 1 2.7 7.4 7.9 6.2 3.7 2 2.6 5.8 6.6 5.2 3.1 3 3.3 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raufoss down, Ranheim across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,437 1. Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.3% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raufoss at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ranheim away: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Raufoss, 2.38 for Ranheim. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAN 5–1 RAU · RAU 1–2 RAN · RAN 1–1 RAU · RAU 1–1 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 13 Sept

RAUFOSS

WLLDLL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 1–2

RANHEIM

DWWLDW2–2 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stromsgodset	27	+43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	+39	59
3	Haugesund	27	+33	59
4	Stabaek	27	+30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	+13	45
6	Bryne	27	−1	39
7	hodd	27	−6	38
8	Ranheim	27	+1	35
9	Egersund	27	−11	34
10	Strommen	27	−11	33
11	Lyn	27	−16	31
12	Moss	27	−16	29
13	Sogndal	27	−16	27
14	Sandnes ULF	27	−17	26
15	Asane	27	−24	23
16	Raufoss	27	−41	20