Raufoss v Moss prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Raufoss 1–2 Moss MOSS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moss win~~41%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.313

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moss win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Moss was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 36–23–41
1′KICK-OFF Raufoss v Moss
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Raufoss 0–0 Moss
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Raufoss 0–1 Moss
45′HALF-TIME Raufoss 0–1 Moss
45′SECOND HALF Raufoss 0–1 Moss
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Moss · On: N. Semmen · Off: N. Alexandersson
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Moss
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Raufoss 1–1 Moss · L. Overgaard
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Raufoss · On: M. Aanesland · Off: Y. Agyeman
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Raufoss 1–1 Moss
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Moss · On: M. Njie · Off: J. Musbaudeen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Moss · On: M. Njie · Off: L. Overgaard
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Raufoss 1–1 Moss
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Raufoss 1–2 Moss · N. Semmen
FTFULL TIME Raufoss 1–2 Moss
FTRaufoss 1–2 Moss · Moss win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Raufoss win36%

Draw23%

Moss win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueNAMMO Stadion

RefereeM. Tennoy

Line-ups

Raufoss

Moss

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Raufoss

Moss

21Days since last match6

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Moss	24	−16	25
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Raufoss

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Klemensson

15 E. Gartig

16 M. Larsen

17 K. Onsrud

2 J. Sjol

6 E. Froysa

8 H. Holter

3 E. Asvestad

7 E. Sildnes

19 H. Karlsen

14 Y. Agyeman

Coach · Petter Berget Ole

Substitutes

5 · E. Gjerde

10 · M. Aanesland

12 · M. G. Synstelien D.

22 · S. Coulibaly

25 · T. E. Engebakken

30 · J. Dalen Korsaksel

31 · U. Danbolt

32 · E. Martinsen

77 · M. Camara

Moss

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Eriksen

4 N. Ibsen

17 P. Andersen

5 O. Jebali

2 M. Cassidy

8 H. Vold Krohg

14 J. Musbaudeen

19 L. Overgaard

16 W. Kvale

7 N. Alexandersson

9 O. Aga

Coach · Geir Bakke

Substitutes

10 · M. Njie

12 · M. Rylandsholm

20 · N. Semmen

21 · S. Gronli

22 · J. Ogbole

23 · R. Hermanstad

24 · M. Njie

26 · E. Chidi

27 · J. S. Selnaes

Our number · moss winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

41% The market54%

Us41%

~~Market~~54%

We make Moss a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · moss win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raufoss win	36%	23%	+13
Draw	23%	23%	0
Moss win	41%	54%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Both teams to score	67%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Raufoss or draw	59%	46%	+14
Raufoss clean sheet	18%	–	–
Moss clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 5.4 5.1 3.0 1 5.1 10.0 8.2 4.9 2.2 2 4.6 7.8 6.7 4.0 3 2.5 4.3 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raufoss down, Moss across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.86 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raufoss at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Moss away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Raufoss, 1.76 for Moss. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MOS 1–2 RAU · MOS 1–1 RAU · RAU 3–2 MOS · MOS 3–2 RAU

Form · last six in 1. Division

RAUFOSS

LLLLWL1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–9 · 2–1 · 0–2

MOSS

DLWLWL2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19