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Model 1.2

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Ranheim v Bryne

Ranheim
4–2Full time
Bryne

1. Division · SUN 18 OCT · EXTRA Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Ranheim 4–2 Bryne RANHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ranheim win40%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.549
The market’s Brier score0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ranheim win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ranheim 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ranheim v Bryne
  4. 12′We said Ranheim at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
  5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ranheim 0–1 Bryne
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Ranheim win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
  7. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Bryne win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Ranheim win 19%)
  8. 14′Bryne score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–20–61
  9. 29′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Bryne
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 15–21–63
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ranheim 1–1 Bryne
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ranheim win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
  13. 32′Ranheim find the net on 31′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–30–33
  14. 33′We said Ranheim at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 2–1 · 67–20–13
  15. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ranheim 2–1 Bryne
  16. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Ranheim win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
  17. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Ranheim win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Bryne win 13%)
  18. 34′A goal for Ranheim on 34′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–20–12
  19. 45′We said Ranheim at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–1 · 90–8–2
  20. 45′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 90–8–2
  21. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ranheim 3–1 Bryne
  22. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ranheim win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  23. 45′SECOND HALF Ranheim 3–1 Bryne
  24. 46′Ranheim score on 45′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 90–7–2
  25. 48′HALF-TIME Ranheim 3–1 Bryne
  26. 54′We said Ranheim at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 4–1 · 98–1–0
  27. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ranheim 4–1 Bryne
  28. 55′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 55′Ranheim find the net on 55′. 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  30. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Bryne
  31. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bryne · On: K. Haland · Off: S. T. Jonassen
  32. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bryne · On: P. Pichkah · Off: L. Qvigstad
  33. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bryne · On: J. Ostrem · Off: L. Sodal
  34. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ranheim · On: S. Haugland · Off: G. Mogensen
  35. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ranheim · On: A. Fossli · Off: F. Nyenetue
  36. 69′We said Ranheim at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Ranheim win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
  38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ranheim · On: L. Skammelsrud · Off: O. Holden
  39. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bryne · On: A. Molund · Off: D. Gaye
  40. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bryne · On: A. Hermansen · Off: K. Hay
  41. 84′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  42. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Ranheim 4–2 Bryne
  43. 86′A goal for Bryne on 85′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  44. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ranheim · On: E. Solberg · Off: T. Kongerud
  45. 94′4–2 at the end. Our 40% on Ranheim comes in. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  46. FTFULL TIME Ranheim 4–2 Bryne
  47. FTRanheim 4–2 Bryne · Ranheim win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ranheim just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ranheim 40%, draw 24%, Bryne 36%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Ranheim v BryneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ranheim win40%
Draw24%
Bryne win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueEXTRA Arena

RefereeE. Wisted-Thu

Line-ups

Ranheim

Bryne

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ranheim

Bryne

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Bryne26+139
9Ranheim26−132

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ranheim

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Storevik

15 K. Rolstad

19 J. Pereira

4 T. Kongerud

5 N. Pallas

8 O. Holden

26 S. Sjovold

10 M. Johnsen

17 F. Nyenetue

27 G. Mogensen

11 M. Sylva

Coach · Eggen Rismark Christian

Substitutes

3 · C. Aasbak

9 · S. Haugland

12 · O. Madsen

20 · A. Fossli

21 · E. Solberg

22 · T. B. Haukeberg

24 · H. Gangstad

25 · L. Skammelsrud

32 · D. Asiedu

Bryne

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Ree

5 J. Haahr

15 K. Hay

3 P. A. Wik

16 D. Gaye

19 T. Engebakken

6 A. Svindland

8 L. Sodal

17 L. Qvigstad

20 D. Johannsson

9 S. T. Jonassen

Coach · Orjan Heiberg

Substitutes

10 · K. Haland

12 · J. de Boer

14 · A. Molund

18 · L. Fajfric

28 · J. Ostrem

33 · A. Hermansen

77 · P. Pichkah

Our number · ranheim winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off
40% The market37%
Us40%
Market37%

We make Ranheim a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ranheim v Bryne1.68 – 1.58
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 32 v 399 v 6
The market · Ranheim win37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Ranheim win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ranheim win40%37%+3
Draw24%25%−1
Bryne win36%38%−2
Over 2.5 goals63%66%−3
Both teams to score65%68%−3
Over 1.5 goals84%84%0
Over 3.5 goals41%46%−5
Ranheim or draw64%62%+2
Ranheim clean sheet21%––
Bryne clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 4.7 5.5 4.8 2.6 1 5.9 10.7 7.9 4.2 2 5.4 8.4 6.5 3.5 3 3.1 4.7 3.7 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ranheim down, Bryne across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.11
Over 2.57 of 9
Both scored8 of 9
Last meetingsBRY 2–3 RAN · RAN 1–4 BRY · BRY 3–2 RAN · BRY 1–0 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

RANHEIM

DDWWLD1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 2–6 · 1–1

BRYNE

LWWWLD0–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Haugesund26+3859
2Stromsgodset26+3857
3Kongsvinger26+3556
4Stabaek26+2949
5ODD Ballklubb26+1445
6Bryne26+139
7hodd26−1035
8Egersund26−1133
9Ranheim26−132
10Strommen26−1230
11Moss26−1529
12Lyn26−1728
13Sandnes ULF26−1326
14Sogndal25−1723
15Asane26−2323
16Raufoss25−3620

The competition's standings before kick-off.