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Model 1.2

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ODD Ballklubb v Strommen

ODD Ballklubb
1–2Full time
Strommen

1. Division · SUN 18 OCT · Skagerak Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
ODD Ballklubb 1–2 Strommen ODD BALLKLUBB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ODD Ballklubb win56%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.929
The market’s Brier score1.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ODD Ballklubb win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: ODD Ballklubb was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ODD Ballklubb v Strommen
  4. 17′A goal for ODD Ballklubb on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
  5. 17′We published ODD Ballklubb at 56%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Strommen
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' ODD Ballklubb win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 76–15–9
  9. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Strommen
  10. 45′HALF-TIME ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Strommen
  11. 46′SECOND HALF ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Strommen
  12. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' P. Frandsen · ODD Ballklubb
  13. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Strommen · On: A. Nord · Off: M. Moldskred Corrected
  14. 55′Strommen score on 55′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–37–22
  15. 55′We said ODD Ballklubb at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–37–22
  16. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' ODD Ballklubb 1–1 Strommen
  17. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' ODD Ballklubb win: 56% at kick-off, 41% now
  18. 59′We said ODD Ballklubb at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–39–22
  19. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was ODD Ballklubb win 37%)
  20. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' ODD Ballklubb
  21. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' ODD Ballklubb win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  22. 65′54′: J. Kristengard on the scoresheet for Strommen, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–45–20
  23. 66′We said ODD Ballklubb at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
  24. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ODD Ballklubb · On: N. Kojo · Off: K. Andersen
  25. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Strommen
  26. 72′We said ODD Ballklubb at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
  27. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Strommen · On: G. Grobelnik · Off: J. Kristengard
  28. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' ODD Ballklubb win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
  29. 76′Strommen find the net on 75′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  30. 76′We said ODD Ballklubb at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  31. 76′⚽ GOAL · 75' ODD Ballklubb 1–2 Strommen
  32. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' ODD Ballklubb win: 56% at kick-off, 4% now
  33. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Strommen win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ODD Ballklubb · On: G. Ambrose · Off: V. Rasmussen
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ODD Ballklubb · On: C. Glenna · Off: D. Soderberg
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Strommen · On: K. Somesi · Off: S. Beck
  37. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Strommen
  38. FTFULL TIME ODD Ballklubb 1–2 Strommen
  39. FTODD Ballklubb 1–2 Strommen · ODD Ballklubb win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ODD Ballklubb are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ODD Ballklubb 56%, draw 21%, Strommen 24%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on ODD Ballklubb v StrommenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ODD Ballklubb win56%
Draw21%
Strommen win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueSkagerak Arena

RefereeH. Holthe

Line-ups

ODD Ballklubb

Strommen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ODD Ballklubb

Strommen

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5ODD Ballklubb26+1445
10Strommen26−1230

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ODD Ballklubb

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Erlandsson

18 S. Aas

5 H. Bonnesen

6 J. Vadstrup

13 S. Skjeldal

7 F. Jorgensen

8 D. Soderberg

10 V. Rasmussen

22 K. Andersen

9 S. Bojadzic

28 F. Tewelde

Coach · Per Frandsen

Substitutes

4 · N. Walstad

11 · C. Glenna

15 · O. Skau

16 · M. Adamu

17 · G. Ambrose

23 · N. Kojo

24 · S. Oines

27 · K. Holte

34 · O. Essayas

Strommen

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Skjaerstein

98 T. Romo Lillo

4 M. Balatoni

13 A. Solberg

5 S. Sharif

6 S. Beck

3 C. Crestani

26 M. Moldskred

24 M. Paulsen

11 M. Waehler

14 J. Kristengard

Coach · Marcus Ericson

Substitutes

1 · M. Kristiansen

8 · K. Somesi

16 · A. Nord

18 · M. Svenningsen Gronn

19 · E. Rogne

21 · T. Ogboji

25 · P. Lindgren

28 · N. Ohr

29 · G. Grobelnik

Our number · odd ballklubb winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off
56% The market64%
Us56%
Market64%

We make ODD Ballklubb a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ODD Ballklubb v Strommen2.32 – 1.48
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 45 v 305 v 10
The market · ODD Ballklubb win64% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:44
Our probability · ODD Ballklubb win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ODD Ballklubb win56%64%−8
Draw21%19%+2
Strommen win24%17%+7
Over 2.5 goals72%72%0
Both teams to score69%66%+3
Over 1.5 goals89%87%+2
Over 3.5 goals52%53%−1
ODD Ballklubb or draw76%83%−7
ODD Ballklubb clean sheet23%––
Strommen clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%
0123450 2.9 3.0 2.5 1 4.8 8.2 5.7 2.8 2 6.0 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 4.6 6.6 4.9 2.4 4 2.7 3.9 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ODD Ballklubb down, Strommen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSTR 0–0 ODD · STR 2–2 ODD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

ODD BALLKLUBB

DLWWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

STROMMEN

WDLDDW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 6–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Haugesund26+3859
2Stromsgodset26+3857
3Kongsvinger26+3556
4Stabaek26+2949
5ODD Ballklubb26+1445
6Bryne26+139
7hodd26−1035
8Egersund26−1133
9Ranheim26−132
10Strommen26−1230
11Moss26−1529
12Lyn26−1728
13Sandnes ULF26−1326
14Sogndal25−1723
15Asane26−2323
16Raufoss25−3620

The competition's standings before kick-off.