Moss v Egersund prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Moss 0–0 Egersund EGERSUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Egersund win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.868

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Egersund win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Egersund was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 38–22–39
1′KICK-OFF Moss v Egersund
45′HALF-TIME Moss 0–0 Egersund
45′SECOND HALF Moss 0–0 Egersund
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Moss · On: T. Usman · Off: O. Aga
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Moss · On: N. Alexandersson · Off: J. S. Selnaes
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Egersund win 32%)
56′We expected about 3.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–40–31
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Egersund win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Egersund · On: H. Tadesse · Off: B. Baxter
64′We said Egersund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–46–27
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Egersund · On: H. Hardarson · Off: N. Tornvig
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Moss · On: R. Hermanstad · Off: J. Musbaudeen
69′We said Egersund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Egersund · On: P. Hovland · Off: S. R. Michalsen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Egersund · On: R. Gyamfi · Off: J. Ekeland
76′We said Egersund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Egersund win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
81′We said Egersund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–14
85′We said Egersund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Egersund win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
92′We said Egersund at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–4
FTFULL TIME Moss 0–0 Egersund
FTMoss 0–0 Egersund · Egersund win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Moss v EgersundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Moss win38%

Draw23%

Egersund win39%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

RefereeM. Hafezi

Line-ups

Moss

Egersund

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Moss

Egersund

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Egersund	25	-11	32
12	Moss	25	-15	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Moss

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Eriksen

4 N. Ibsen

17 P. Andersen

5 O. Jebali

2 M. Cassidy

8 H. Vold Krohg

14 J. Musbaudeen

27 J. S. Selnaes

16 W. Kvale

9 O. Aga

10 M. Njie

Coach · Geir Bakke

Substitutes

7 · N. Alexandersson

12 · M. Rylandsholm

21 · S. Gronli

22 · J. Ogbole

23 · R. Hermanstad

24 · M. Njie

25 · T. Usman

26 · E. Chidi

31 · J. Harveg

Egersund

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Eriksen

25 J. Gregersen

31 I. Jonsson

3 B. Maeland

2 H. Kleppa

8 C. Sleveland

26 B. Baxter

21 K. Eggen

16 J. Ekeland

7 N. Tornvig

10 S. R. Michalsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Zapytowski

18 · P. Hovland

19 · R. Gyamfi

20 · J. Jorgensen

22 · H. Tadesse

23 · O. Toft Noreng

24 · M. Sylla

28 · H. Hardarson

29 · A. B. Hetland

Our number · egersund winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make Egersund a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moss v Egersund~~1.74 – 1.77

~~Last six in 1. Division~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 32~~12 v 8

~~The market · Egersund win~~32% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · egersund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moss win	38%	44%	−6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Egersund win	39%	32%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	68%	67%	0
Both teams to score	68%	69%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Moss or draw	61%	68%	−7
Moss clean sheet	18%	–	–
Egersund clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 4.9 4.7 2.8 1 4.8 9.7 8.0 4.7 2.1 2 4.6 7.9 6.9 4.0 3 2.7 4.6 4.0 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moss down, Egersund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moss at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Egersund away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Moss, 1.77 for Egersund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~EGE 3–0 MOS · EGE 2–0 MOS · MOS 2–4 EGE · EGE 3–2 MOS

Form · last six in 1. Division

MOSS

LWLWLW1–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

EGERSUND

DDDLLW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–5 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kongsvinger	25	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	13	42
6	Bryne	25	1	38
7	hodd	25	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	-1	31
10	Strommen	26	-12	30
11	Lyn	25	-14	28
12	Moss	25	-15	28
13	Sandnes ULF	25	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	-16	23
15	Asane	26	-23	23
16	Raufoss	24	-36	19