Moss v Asane prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MossDrawAsane

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Moss 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moss are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moss 49%, draw 23%, Asane 28%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Moss v AsaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Moss win49%

Draw23%

Asane win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 28

RefereeH. Sletner

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moss

Asane

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Moss	27	−16	29
15	Asane	27	−24	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moss winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market61%

Us49%

~~Market~~61%

We make Moss a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moss v Asane~~1.96 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 29 v 23~~12 v 15

~~The market · Moss win~~61% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Moss win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moss win	49%	61%	−12
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Asane win	28%	19%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Both teams to score	66%	66%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Moss or draw	72%	81%	−9
Moss clean sheet	24%	–	–
Asane clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 4.4 3.5 1 6.1 9.9 6.7 3.2 2 6.4 9.0 6.5 3.1 3 4.2 5.9 4.2 2.1 4 2.1 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moss down, Asane across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,438 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moss at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Asane away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Moss, 1.45 for Asane. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ASA 2–3 MOS · MOS 1–2 ASA · ASA 2–1 MOS · MOS 1–1 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 13 Sept

MOSS

LWLWDL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

ASANE

DLLWLL2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–6 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stromsgodset	27	+43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	+39	59
3	Haugesund	27	+33	59
4	Stabaek	27	+30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	+13	45
6	Bryne	27	−1	39
7	Ranheim	28	+3	38
8	hodd	27	−6	38
9	Egersund	27	−11	34
10	Strommen	27	−11	33
11	Lyn	27	−16	31
12	Moss	27	−16	29
13	Sogndal	27	−16	27
14	Sandnes ULF	27	−17	26
15	Asane	27	−24	23
16	Raufoss	28	−43	20