Lyn v Stromsgodset prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Lyn 1–5 Stromsgodset STROMSGODSET WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stromsgodset win~~47%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.232

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stromsgodset win at 47%.
0′Much as we predicted: Stromsgodset was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 31–22–48
0′KICK-OFF Lyn v Stromsgodset
2′Much as we predicted: Stromsgodset was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 31–22–48
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Lyn 0–1 Stromsgodset
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lyn 0–1 Stromsgodset
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Lyn 0–2 Stromsgodset · E. Melkersen
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lyn 0–2 Stromsgodset
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lyn 0–3 Stromsgodset · F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Lyn 0–3 Stromsgodset
45′SECOND HALF Lyn 0–3 Stromsgodset
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lyn 0–4 Stromsgodset · H. Stengel
46′HALF-TIME Lyn 0–3 Stromsgodset
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Lyn 0–4 Stromsgodset
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Lyn
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Lyn 0–5 Stromsgodset · K. Krasniqi
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lyn 0–5 Stromsgodset
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lyn 0–5 Stromsgodset · E. Melkersen (assist H. Stengel)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Stromsgodset · On: G. Wikheim · Off: F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Lyn 1–5 Stromsgodset · E. Melkersen
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Stromsgodset · On: M. Mehnert · Off: S. Pingel
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Lyn 1–5 Stromsgodset
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stromsgodset · On: A. Heredia-Randen · Off: K. Krasniqi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Lyn · On: A. Memedov · Off: M. Johansen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Lyn · On: W. T. Waehler · Off: J. Skaug
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Lyn · On: F. Sock · Off: A. Hellum
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Lyn · On: W. T. Waehler · Off: J. Skaug
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Lyn · On: F. Sock · Off: A. Hellum
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lyn
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lyn
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' O. Gueye · Lyn
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lyn · On: I. Monglo · Off: A. Olsen
FTFULL TIME Lyn 1–5 Stromsgodset
FTLyn 1–5 Stromsgodset · Stromsgodset win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lyn win30%

Draw22%

Stromsgodset win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueBislett Stadium

RefereeM. Berg

Line-ups

Lyn

Stromsgodset

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lyn

Stromsgodset

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
10	Lyn	24	−10	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lyn

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Pedersen

55 S. Haugen

3 E. Race

6 A. Midtskogen

4 W. Sell

17 J. Nois

24 D. Fredriksen

9 A. Olsen

21 J. Skaug

10 M. Johansen

11 A. Hellum

Coach · Magnus Aadland

Substitutes

7 · I. Monglo

20 · W. T. Waehler

22 · W. Kurtovic

25 · M. Andersen

26 · A. Memedov

27 · I. Barnett

29 · O. Gueye

30 · F. Sock

Stromsgodset

Formation not confirmed

12 S. Lampinen-Skaug

5 B. Sormo

25 J. Taaje

71 G. Valsvik

3 V. Dedes

8 K. Krasniqi

22 K. Antonsen

9 E. Melkersen

10 H. Stengel

16 F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

11 S. Pingel

Coach · Magne Hoseth

Substitutes

1 · M. Lamhauge

14 · O. Enersen

15 · A. Heredia-Randen

23 · E. Ingebrethsen

26 · L. Vilsvik

77 · M. Mehnert

80 · G. Wikheim

Our number · stromsgodset winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

47% The market61%

Us47%

~~Market~~61%

We make Stromsgodset a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stromsgodset win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyn win	30%	20%	+11
Draw	22%	20%	+3
Stromsgodset win	47%	61%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Both teams to score	68%	70%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	89%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	47%	56%	−9
Lyn or draw	53%	39%	+13
Lyn clean sheet	14%	–	–
Stromsgodset clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 5.3 5.7 3.8 1 4.1 9.3 8.7 5.7 2.9 2 3.6 6.9 6.7 4.4 2.2 3 3.6 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyn down, Stromsgodset across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lyn at home: 2.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stromsgodset away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Lyn, 1.99 for Stromsgodset. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STR 1–1 LYN

Form · last six in 1. Division

LYN

WDDWLL2–1 · 4–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

STROMSGODSET

WWDWWW3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19