Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 1. Division › Lyn v Moss

Back
Norway flag

Lyn v Moss

Lyn
1–0Full time
Moss

1. Division · SUN 18 OCT · Bislett Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Lyn 1–0 Moss LYN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lyn win52%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.349
The market’s Brier score0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lyn win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lyn 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lyn v Moss
  4. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Moss · On: J. Musbaudeen · Off: N. Alexandersson
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lyn win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Lyn 0–0 Moss
  7. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Moss
  8. 46′HALF-TIME Lyn 0–0 Moss
  9. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 31' M. Aadland · Lyn
  10. 50′We said Lyn at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–36–24
  11. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Moss
  12. 53′We said Lyn at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–37–23
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–39–23
  14. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Lyn win 36%)
  15. 63′We said Lyn at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
  16. 66′We said Lyn at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Lyn win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
  18. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Lyn 1–0 Moss
  19. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Lyn win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
  20. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Lyn win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
  21. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Moss · On: R. Hermanstad · Off: T. Usman
  22. 69′Lyn find the net on 67′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  23. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Lyn win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  24. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lyn · On: J. Skaug · Off: J. Nois
  25. 76′We said Lyn at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Moss · On: S. Gronli · Off: P. Andersen Corrected
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lyn · On: A. Memedov · Off: M. Johansen
  28. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lyn · On: F. Sock · Off: A. Hellum
  29. 82′We said Lyn at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  30. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Moss · On: E. Chidi · Off: M. Njie
  31. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Lyn win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  32. 89′We said Lyn at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  33. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Moss
  34. 93′1–0 at the end. Our 52% on Lyn comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Lyn 1–0 Moss
  36. FTLyn 1–0 Moss · Lyn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyn are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyn 52%, draw 22%, Moss 26%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Lyn v MossBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lyn win52%
Draw22%
Moss win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueBislett Stadium

RefereeJ. Mertens

Line-ups

Lyn

Moss

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyn

Moss

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Moss26−1529
12Lyn26−1728

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lyn

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Pedersen

18 H. Nilsen

3 E. Race

6 A. Midtskogen

27 I. Barnett

29 O. Gueye

24 D. Fredriksen

17 J. Nois

9 A. Olsen

11 A. Hellum

10 M. Johansen

Coach · Magnus Aadland

Substitutes

2 · D. Gherezghiher

7 · I. Monglo

20 · W. T. Waehler

21 · J. Skaug

25 · M. Andersen

26 · A. Memedov

30 · F. Sock

Moss

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Eriksen

4 N. Ibsen

24 M. Njie

5 O. Jebali

2 M. Cassidy

8 H. Vold Krohg

17 P. Andersen

7 N. Alexandersson

46 W. Kvale

25 T. Usman

10 M. Njie

Coach · Geir Bakke

Substitutes

9 · O. Aga

12 · M. Rylandsholm

14 · J. Musbaudeen

21 · S. Gronli

22 · J. Ogbole

23 · R. Hermanstad

26 · E. Chidi

27 · J. S. Selnaes

31 · J. Harveg

Our number · lyn winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off
52% The market43%
Us52%
Market43%

We make Lyn a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lyn v Moss2.08 – 1.43
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 28 v 2912 v 11
The market · Lyn win43% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Lyn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lyn win52%43%+9
Draw22%25%−3
Moss win26%32%−6
Over 2.5 goals68%66%+2
Both teams to score66%68%−2
Over 1.5 goals87%85%+2
Over 3.5 goals46%47%−1
Lyn or draw74%68%+6
Lyn clean sheet24%––
Moss clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.7 3.8 3.1 1 5.7 9.4 6.3 3.0 2 6.5 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 4.5 6.2 4.4 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lyn down, Moss across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.54 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsMOS 2–1 LYN · LYN 4–0 MOS · MOS 2–0 LYN · LYN 1–2 MOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

LYN

DWLLLL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 0–3

MOSS

WLWLWD3–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Haugesund26+3859
2Stromsgodset26+3857
3Kongsvinger26+3556
4Stabaek26+2949
5ODD Ballklubb26+1445
6Bryne26+139
7hodd26−1035
8Egersund26−1133
9Ranheim26−132
10Strommen26−1230
11Moss26−1529
12Lyn26−1728
13Sandnes ULF26−1326
14Sogndal25−1723
15Asane26−2323
16Raufoss25−3620

The competition's standings before kick-off.