Kongsvinger v Sandnes ULF prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Kongsvinger 4–0 Sandnes ULF KONGSVINGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kongsvinger win~~74%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.101

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.123

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kongsvinger win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kongsvinger was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–15–12
1′KICK-OFF Kongsvinger v Sandnes ULF
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Sandnes ULF
14′We published Kongsvinger at 74%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–8–4
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kongsvinger 1–0 Sandnes ULF
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Kongsvinger win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
15′Kongsvinger score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–8–4
44′We published Kongsvinger at 74%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Kongsvinger 2–0 Sandnes ULF
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Kongsvinger win: 74% at kick-off, 97% now
45′Kongsvinger find the net on 44′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
45′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Kongsvinger 2–0 Sandnes ULF
47′SECOND HALF Kongsvinger 2–0 Sandnes ULF
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kongsvinger · On: E. Nielsen · Off: V. Fors
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Sandnes ULF
64′We published Kongsvinger at 74%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′A goal for Kongsvinger on 64′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Kongsvinger 3–0 Sandnes ULF
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sandnes ULF · On: M. Henriksen · Off: K. Pereira
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sandnes ULF · On: O. Bardarson · Off: M. Sundberg
66′R. Christiansen scores for Kongsvinger on 65′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kongsvinger · On: M. Flores · Off: A. Chaminta
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kongsvinger · On: E. Olawore · Off: R. Christiansen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kongsvinger · On: G. Johnson · Off: L. Langrekken
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sandnes ULF · On: E. Debes · Off: E. Berland
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kongsvinger 4–0 Sandnes ULF
89′Kongsvinger score on 88′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Kongsvinger · On: P. Udnaes · Off: F. Christensen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sandnes ULF · On: S. Saugestad · Off: O. Sundgot
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sandnes ULF · On: A. Bruseth · Off: Y. de Lanlay
90′87′: S. Norheim on the scoresheet for Kongsvinger, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 4–0. We called Kongsvinger at 74% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sandnes ULF
FTFULL TIME Kongsvinger 4–0 Sandnes ULF
FTKongsvinger 4–0 Sandnes ULF · Kongsvinger win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kongsvinger are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kongsvinger 74%, draw 15%, Sandnes ULF 11%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Kongsvinger v Sandnes ULFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kongsvinger win74%

Draw15%

Sandnes ULF win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueGjemselund Stadion

RefereeH. Nervik

Line-ups

Kongsvinger

Sandnes ULF

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kongsvinger

Sandnes ULF

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kongsvinger	26	+35	56
13	Sandnes ULF	26	−13	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kongsvinger

Formation not confirmed

93 A. Gorodovoy

17 M. Gjerstrom

3 S. Norheim

12 M. Mbow

2 V. Fors

27 M. Sande

23 F. Christensen

8 A. Dybevik

28 R. Christiansen

22 L. Langrekken

21 A. Chaminta

Coach · Johan Vennberg

Substitutes

1 · W. Da Rocha

5 · D. Lysgard

9 · G. Johnson

15 · V. Lysell

16 · P. Udnaes

18 · M. Flores

19 · E. Nielsen

25 · S. Elmi

26 · E. Olawore

Sandnes ULF

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Falch

4 A. Kryger

3 F. Botnen

5 G. Oregaard

23 E. Berland

16 Y. de Lanlay

15 Z. Nsoni

10 K. Kostadinov

19 K. Pereira

11 M. Sundberg

9 O. Sundgot

Coach · Arturo Cleveland

Substitutes

7 · O. Bardarson

8 · S. Saugestad

13 · T. Flolid

18 · A. Bruseth

25 · E. Debes

28 · M. Henriksen

77 · A. Memed

Our number · kongsvinger winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

74% The market71%

Us74%

~~Market~~71%

We make Kongsvinger a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kongsvinger v Sandnes ULF~~3.08 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 56 v 26~~3 v 13

~~The market · Kongsvinger win~~71% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kongsvinger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kongsvinger win	74%	71%	+3
Draw	15%	16%	−1
Sandnes ULF win	11%	12%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Both teams to score	65%	64%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	92%	89%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	61%	56%	+5
Kongsvinger or draw	89%	88%	+1
Kongsvinger clean sheet	31%	–	–
Sandnes ULF clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 1 4.3 5.7 3.1 2 6.8 7.8 4.6 3 6.8 7.8 4.5 4 5.2 5.9 3.4 5 3.3 3.7 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Kongsvinger down, Sandnes ULF across0–5 goals a side shown (89.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,428 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kongsvinger at home: 4.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sandnes ULF away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.08 goals for Kongsvinger, 1.17 for Sandnes ULF. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–6 KON · KON 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–2 KON · KON 4–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

KONGSVINGER

WDWWWL9–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 6–2 · 1–5

SANDNES ULF

DLLDDL1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	26	+38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	+38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	+35	56
4	Stabaek	26	+29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	+14	45
6	Bryne	26	+1	39
7	hodd	26	−10	35
8	Egersund	26	−11	33
9	Ranheim	26	−1	32
10	Strommen	26	−12	30
11	Moss	26	−15	29
12	Lyn	26	−17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	−13	26
14	Sogndal	25	−17	23
15	Asane	26	−23	23
16	Raufoss	25	−36	20