Kongsvinger v Ranheim prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Kongsvinger 6–2 Ranheim KONGSVINGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kongsvinger win~~64%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.196

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kongsvinger win at 64%.
0′Kongsvinger find the net on 1′. 0–0. 0–0 · 65–16–19
1′Kongsvinger ahead on 1′ through M. Flores. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–11–9
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
14′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Ranheim · On: S. Sjovold · Off: G. Asen
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Kongsvinger win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
14′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Ranheim
20′K. Rolstad scores for Ranheim on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 61–19–20
22′K. Rolstad scores for Ranheim on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 60–20–20
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Kongsvinger 1–2 Ranheim · K. Rolstad
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kongsvinger 1–2 Ranheim
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Kongsvinger 2–2 Ranheim
45′SECOND HALF Kongsvinger 2–2 Ranheim
52′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Ranheim
53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Ranheim
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Kongsvinger 3–2 Ranheim · M. Flores
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Kongsvinger 3–2 Ranheim
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Kongsvinger 3–2 Ranheim
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Kongsvinger
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' E. Nielsen · Kongsvinger
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kongsvinger 3–2 Ranheim
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Kongsvinger 4–2 Ranheim · R. Christiansen
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Ranheim
66′⚽ GOAL · 68' Kongsvinger 4–2 Ranheim
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Kongsvinger 5–2 Ranheim · M. Flores
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kongsvinger · On: A. Chaminta · Off: R. Christiansen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kongsvinger · On: A. Chaminta · Off: R. Christiansen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: A. Fossli · Off: S. Haugland
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: F. Nyenetue · Off: T. Kongerud
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kongsvinger · On: D. Lysgard · Off: E. Nielsen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kongsvinger · On: A. Chaminta · Off: R. Christiansen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: A. Fossli · Off: S. Haugland
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: F. Nyenetue · Off: T. Kongerud
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kongsvinger 5–2 Ranheim
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kongsvinger 6–2 Ranheim · R. Christiansen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kongsvinger · On: S. Elmi · Off: M. Mbow
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Kongsvinger · On: E. Olawore · Off: G. Johnson
FTFULL TIME Kongsvinger 6–2 Ranheim
FTKongsvinger 6–2 Ranheim · Kongsvinger win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kongsvinger win64%

Draw17%

Ranheim win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueGjemselund Stadion

RefereeO. Valen

Line-ups

Kongsvinger

Ranheim

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kongsvinger

Ranheim

6Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kongsvinger

Formation not confirmed

93 A. Gorodovoy

17 M. Gjerstrom

3 S. Norheim

12 M. Mbow

19 E. Nielsen

27 M. Sande

23 F. Christensen

8 A. Dybevik

28 R. Christiansen

9 G. Johnson

18 M. Flores

Coach · Johan Vennberg

Substitutes

1 · W. Da Rocha

5 · D. Lysgard

14 · L. Hovland

15 · V. Lysell

16 · P. Udnaes

21 · A. Chaminta

25 · S. Elmi

26 · E. Olawore

Ranheim

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Storevik

22 T. B. Haukeberg

19 J. Pereira

4 T. Kongerud

15 K. Rolstad

5 N. Pallas

8 O. Holden

23 G. Asen

10 M. Johnsen

9 S. Haugland

11 M. Sylva

Coach · Eggen Rismark Christian

Substitutes

12 · O. Madsen

3 · C. Aasbak

17 · F. Nyenetue

20 · A. Fossli

25 · L. Skammelsrud

26 · S. Sjovold

27 · G. Mogensen

Our number · kongsvinger winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

64% The market59%

Us64%

~~Market~~59%

We make Kongsvinger a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kongsvinger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kongsvinger win	64%	59%	+5
Draw	17%	19%	−3
Ranheim win	20%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Both teams to score	77%	73%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	95%	90%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	68%	61%	+8
Kongsvinger or draw	80%	79%	+2
Kongsvinger clean sheet	19%	–	–
Ranheim clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.9%

0123450 1 2.7 5.0 4.0 2.2 2 4.2 6.9 5.7 3.2 3 4.1 6.7 5.6 3.2 4 3.1 5.0 4.2 2.4 5 3.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Kongsvinger down, Ranheim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.11 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kongsvinger at home: 4.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ranheim away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.03 goals for Kongsvinger, 1.69 for Ranheim. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RAN 1–1 KON · KON 1–1 RAN · RAN 2–1 KON · RAN 2–2 KON

Form · last six in 1. Division

KONGSVINGER

WDWDWW1–0 · 4–4 · 9–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–0

RANHEIM

LLDDWW2–4 · 3–5 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19